George Friedman

Global Europe 24-05-2017

No bluffing: US preparing to attack North Korea

The United States is advertising its preparations for war. North Korea assumes the attack is inevitable, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 11-04-2017

What a US president wants and what he must do are two different things

Donald Trump may want the United States to be less involved in the world but the reality is that the US is deeply involved, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 23-02-2017

NATO, the Middle East and Eastern Europe

Interests within NATO diverge, particularly between the United States and many European countries. George Friedman takes a closer look.

Trade & Society 25-10-2016

Wallonia strikes out at Canada

There are historic reasons behind the Walloon rejection of CETA, and a price to pay for post-Napoleonic Britain having engineered Belgium as a nation in gridlock, writes George Friedman.

Euro & Finance 13-10-2016

Joy and despair in European statistics

Europe needs more than temporary growth to boost its economy, write George Friedman and Antonia Colibasanu.

Global Europe 17-08-2016

Nationalism, technology, and the Olympics

The Olympic Games have turned into a competition between nations, rather than individuals, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 19-07-2016

The Turkey coup looks like the most incompetent undertaking imaginable

Whatever happened on Friday 15 July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emerged stronger than ever and can now arrest anyone he wants on charges of treason, writes George Friedman.

Brexit 23-06-2016

A thin win of the Remain camp means Britain will remain in uncertainty for EU

If the Remain camp wins by a tiny majority – the polls show a deadlock – then the Leave camp will not let the matter stand. It will manoeuvre for another referendum down the road, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 02-06-2016

In EU and US, nationalism is rising, not fascism

The claims of an increase in fascism in Europe and the US derive from a misunderstanding of the term, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 02-06-2016

Germany looks to ease Russian sanctions

From Germany’s point of view, in the absence of normalisation with Russia, the worst case scenario would be a Cold War to its east, which would bring the end of the EU, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 09-05-2016

Ballistic missile defence and reality

The US ballistic missile defence system in Poland and Romania protects Eastern Europe from a very improbable threat, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 28-04-2016

Obama and the European Union

European integration was an American idea. If the European Union falls apart, it is hard to see how NATO survives, even in its current state, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 11-04-2016

France confronts Germany on defence

For the French, building a European military force around France and Germany is the necessary precondition for any solution to Europe’s growing challenges. But this goes counter to Germany’s fundamental sense of self, and its interests, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 06-04-2016

Erdogan’s not mad, he’s ruthless

If President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is going to become the single centre of power in Turkey, he must crush his domestic opposition and the PKK, and with its refugee deal, the EU is helping him do that, writes George Friedman.

Fighting terrorism requires massive intrusion into society

Any successful counter to terrorism can’t be carried out by security forces. It must be carried out by intelligence services, and massive intrusion in society is needed, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 22-03-2016

Hungary, Poland and illiberal democracy

The EU’s problem is that others are following the illiberal regimes of Hungary and in Poland, and it is possible that among them be Germany, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 15-03-2016

Why Putin went into Syria

The Russians intervened in Syria in order to bail the United States out of a very difficult situation, and obtain better understanding for their interests with Ukraine, writes George Friedman.

Future EU 23-02-2016

Brexit and the ongoing saga of the EU

What has emerged in the last two years is a European Union where member states pay attention to European regulations only when it suits them, and an EU leadership that does nothing about it, writes George Friedman.

Europe's East 16-02-2016

The EU has no leaders

The EU is an apparatus, and that is not something people can trust, writes George Friedman, comparing the US presidential election with the crisis of leadership elsewhere in the world.

Brexit 05-02-2016

Is the EU finished if the British leave?

Those who say that if the British leave, the EU is finished are right. Not because Britain is an indispensable member, but because for other members, sovereignty matters too, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 28-01-2016

Why does Patrushev warn of an American plot against Russia?

Coming from Nikolai Partushev, a senior Russian official, and former head of the intelligence service close to President Vladimir Putin, statements about an American plot against Russia have to be taken seriously, writes George Friedman for Geopolitical Futures.

Global Europe 22-01-2016

Germany is the poster child of an accident waiting to happen

Export-oriented Germany is the poster child for an accident waiting to happen, according to a review of countries most affected by the ongoing global economic slowdown,  George Friedman writes in Geopolitical Futures.

Brexit 06-05-2015

How British elections represent the state of Europe

The UK election matters not because of who wins, but because of how the marginal parties will influence British strategy on Europe and the existence of the UK itself, writes George Friedman. 

"I am Charlie", the slogan of solidarity.
Languages & Culture 08-01-2015

Paris attack underscores a deeper malaise

Wednesday's deadly attack against a French satirical publication has the potential to upset relations between European states and their Muslim citizens, writes George Friedman.