"I don't think we can get a legally binding agreement by Copenhagen. I think that we can get that within a year after Copenhagen," UN climate chief Yvo de Boer said on Thursday in an interview. Instead, some negotiators were suggesting that the agreement signed at the UN climate conference at the Danish capital in December would only be political.
"That does not diminish the importance of Copenhagen," said Andres Turesson, Sweden's chief climate negotiator. "In Copenhagen, we need an agreement and that agreement must contain the important contents of the future climate change regime."
Turesson, whose country currently holds the EU Presidency, was more optimistic than de Boer on what can be achieved in Copenhagen. He pointed out that the necessary institutions, binding commitments and the political resolve would have to be established in December.
But developing countries said they would not settle for a political agreement. They want to see a continuation of the Kyoto Protocol, which set limits to industrialised countries' emissions.
"I do not know of anything called a politically binding agreement," said Lumumba Di-Aping, a Sudanese envoy and chair of the Group of 77 and China, according to reports.
Developing nations reasserted themselves, demanding clear targets from industrialised nations to cut emissions in the midterm. African nations blocked the talks at the start of the week, saying that all negotiations on mitigation actions should be halted until there are clear commitments from the rich countries to cut their emissions.
The US, in particular, came under pressure to clarify its targets (EurActiv 04/11/09). The country with the biggest historical responsibility for emissions was accused of hiding behind the Senate where its domestic climate legislation has been delayed.
"We understand that the US – as everybody else, by the way (…) – has domestic processes," said Andres Turesson, Sweden's chief climate negotiator. "But it is nevertheless very important for a deal in Copenhagen to have the biggest emitter there with a concrete figure, which also should be legally binding."
EU's funding proposal 'peanuts'
The EU came into the talks with a funding plan agreed by the heads of state and government last month (EurActiv 30/10/09). According to observers, the bloc spent considerable time in bilateral talks with developing nations, clarifying its position.
But the EU's proposal to make between €22 and €50 billion of international public money available per year by 2020 to finance climate efforts in poor countries was dismissed by environmentalists as "peanuts".
The EU's proposal of specific emission reduction targets for the aviation and maritime sectors was a welcome boost to the talks on the issue, observers said. Developing countries welcomed the opening of discussion on using the two international sectors to raise funding for climate adaptation in poor countries.
Relying on world leaders to break deadlock
Although it is still unclear what the political agreeement would look like, it is certain that nations would need to stick to their promises to continue negotiations into 2010, observers noted.
"It is vital to achieve a strong agreement in Copenhagen that covers all the key elements of the Bali Action Plan. The nations of the world need to take an important step towards a low carbon future. Copenhagen is crucial," said Turesson.
"The minimum outcome in Copenhagen must be a framework agreement on the essential building blocks of the new treaty and a deadline for completing it. The agreement must include ambitious emission reduction commitments by developed countries including the United States, adequate action to curb emissions growth by developing countries and a financial deal to assist developing countries both in mitigating their emissions and adapting to climate change. The EU is ready to do everything to complete this work as soon as possible," said Artur Runge-Metzger, chief negotiator for the European Commission.
It is expected that world leaders would come to Copenhagen to endorse the deal, this would carry more weight, delegates said. At least 40 leaders are expected, including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
Former U.S. vice-president Al Gore said he believes President Barack Obama will attend, but the White House has not confirmed.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil has indicated he may come, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel is reportedly keeping the date open, a spokesman said.
