A former US ambassador to the EU and former presidential adviser, Stuart Eizenstat currently heads the international trade and finance division at law firm Covington and Burling.
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The Obama administration is unlikely to focus on global climate change commitments before enacting domestic legislation. Both Boxer and Waxman, the Senate and House energy committee chairs, want to push for legislation in early 2009, but it is doubtful that the proposals would become law before Copenhagen. Is it realistic to expect a post-Kyoto deal next December?
Yes, it is, and I think that there will be something important coming out of Copenhagen. I don't know whether it will be a final agreement with every 'i' dotted and 't' crossed, as we put it, but it is going to be a tall order, but not an impossible one.
It is absolutely important that in Copenhagen we set at the very least the framework for a final agreement, perhaps the next year in 2010. Again, I don't foreclose that it could be done in Copenhagen, but it would be a tall order to do that.
What do you see in this framework?
I think the framework will have to focus on what the developing countries are willing to commit, what the developed countries are willing to do, and how we deal with offsets, carbon credits and technology transfer without compromising intellectual property protection. On all these big issues, I think, we need to have basic answers. Maybe we won't be able to fill in every number, but we need to have those concepts agreed upon. And I think that is realistic.
You said that by the end of the decade, the US would come up with carbon legislation, hopefully at least mandatory targets. Couldn't the US agree on mandatory targets in time for Copenhagen and come up with comprehensive carbon trade legislation later?
Both of these are going to be going on simultaneously. We are going to re-engage with our European partners, which the Bush administration did not do, and clearly re-engage with the UN international negotiations. The US will be a full partner.
On a parallel track, the US administration is going to try to pass carbon trade legislation. I feel very confident that by the end of the next Congress, there will be mandatory targets set in the United States legislation.
What I'm not as certain about is whether we can reach an agreement in 2009. On the international set, I think that once we have our legislation in place, it'll be easy to reach an agreement internationally.
Senator John Kerry [President-elect Barack Obama's envoy to last week's Poznan climate talks] said he thinks we can reach an international agreement, even before the Congress acts. He said that in Poznan. That is one school of thought, but there are others in Congress who think otherwise.
One of the outcomes of Poznan is the decision to have a draft text of a new global agreement tabled by next June. Do you think it is realistic?
Yes, but it depends on what you mean by text. If it's what I'm talking about, which is sort of a framework, that's realistic. But I suspect that the text may leave open the numbers: what reductions by 2020, what reductions by 2040.
With the declining growth in the US and Europe, developing nations will represent almost 100% of economic growth in the next year. When it comes to finding money for adaptation and mitigation, developing countries with booming economies want developed countries to move the first pawn?
It is clear that the developing countries don't want to act before they see that the US has acted. I think that even by Copenhagen it will be clear that there's movement. Whether all the final pieces of legislation will be done is again a tall order. But clearly there'll be a lot of movement. So, I think we can come into Copenhagen with some conviction that we are really moving and we're showing action, even if we haven't finally got every last detail of the legislation done.
But again, I've stressed that it's a very difficult economic environment to get this done. We have such tremendous concern about the fragility of the US economy.
The EU has done it though, despite the economic crisis. Some say EU leaders agreed a watered-down energy and climate package, but it is a start and we managed to push for an agreement in one year. The EU will push the US to fast-forward…
I don't think there needs to be, because the President-elect has made very clear that he's not going to let economic circumstances deter him from moving.
But the economic crisis will be an issue…
Look, the new administration will bring a sea change. The US wants to make its contribution to climate change, but in the process President-elect Obama wants to transform the US economy and use the economic stimulus package to bring in green technologies, green infrastructure, creation of green jobs.
That sea change is building on a crest that was already occurring in the US, but that was not recognized in Europe because it was obscured by the US Bush administration opposition to mandatory targets.
Next year, California, which if it were a country will be the 7th largest country in the world in terms of GDP, has mandatory Kyoto-type targets for all companies operating in the state. Likewise for utilities in over a dozen in North Eastern/Mid-atlantic states will have mandatory targets for utilities.
Corporations have joined in the efforts. 300 companies taking mandatory steps to curb emissions even if they don’t have a legal obligation.
You have been dubbed the behind-the-scenes mentor of Barack Obama. You said 'we are fortunate to have a youthful, brilliant, charismatic man, whose vision is firmly planted in 21st century and who will help America meet unparallel challenges of a new era'. Do you think his leadership will change not only America, but also the way other leaders perceive challenges and opportunities and act responsibly as leaders of the 21st century?
The expectations around the world are sky-high, and no one person can change policies that have been built in over the last eight to ten years overnight.
But clearly there is going to be a real breath of fresh air. There's going to be a major change in policy and the sense of listening to world opinion, participating in multilateral efforts, not acting unilaterally, being more concerned with issues like climate change, more effort on diplomatic solutions to international problems. All of those things will represent a major change: dealing with the issue of torture, emphasising human rights again in our policy.
Those things will change but it still takes time. You can't close Guantanamo overnight. I think it's important for the world to realise that change is coming: it will come. But that it shouldn't unreasonable expect it will come the day after his inauguration.
