"What we did was compare the level of ambition that the European Union is pretending to take, compared to what it means in reality. 20% emissions reduction by the EU by the year 2020 on 1990 levels means no more than 4-5% emissions reductions domestically" as from 2009 onwards, he said.
To back his claim, Singer explained that the EU will already achieve an 8% cut, mainly due to de-industrialisation in ex-Soviet states that has taken place since 1990, the base year of the Kyoto Protocol.
"So 12% is left," Singer points out. But he says this will not be achieved by emission cuts within Europe’s borders, as the EU plans to allow a large chunk of it -- 60% -- to be achieved via emission offsets in developing countries, using the UN’s clean development mechanism (CDM).
"This in principle is not a problem if there were a strong domestic target as well, and if the clean development mechanism would have been shown to be truly additional. But that is not the case."
In fact, he says EU offset projects in developing countries did not truly deliver "because those emissions reductions would have probably occurred anyway" due to policies implemented in countries such as China. As a consequence, Singer says the EU’s 20% target "represents just a 4-5% domestic target" between now and 2020.
"It’s a trick on the atmosphere," he claims.
"If we want to stay below 2°C global warming, the European Union is pretending to do the 20% cut. And then on top of that they ask developing countries to reduce their emissions 15% to 30%. That’s cheating. That does not help to achieve the 2°C."
US and China 'among the world leaders'
In comparison, Singer says US President Barack Obama has committed to much more aggressive cuts. “The Obama administration is proposing a stabilisation of emissions in the US at 1990 levels by the year 2020. That is a 19% emissions cut in the US from now on, roughly.”
Singer is also keen to counter the argument, often heard in Europe, that emerging economies such as China are not doing enough on climate change.
"China has committed to reducing its energy intensity, energy use per GDP, by 20% in just six years between 2005 and 2010, and another 20-30% until 2020. And this is quite substantive if you look at the GDP growth in China. China has a very ambitious renewable energy target, 15-20% renewables by 2020, similar to that of the EU. China has 14 to 16 new pilot projects on coal gasification in the pipeline. We just have one in Europe."
"China is definitely one of the world leaders."
He also expressed confidence that China will be a constructive player at the Copenhagen climate talks in December. "I am not concerned about China. Everyone talks about China."
But he did express concern that the EU was losing its world leadership. “I’m not saying the EU is doing nothing. We have very good laws in a couple of European countries. Renewable energy laws in Germany, and energy efficiency provisions in Sweden etc., but the European Union, as a whole, is losing its leadership on joint harmonised policies to lead the world on decarbonisation. With 4-5% domestic emissions reductions, you cannot have a low carbon development pathway in Europe.”
Russian ‘black box’ a bigger reason for concern
According to Singer, one of the biggest uncertainties at the UN climate talks will be the position of Russia.
"Experience tells us that Russia always comes in at the eleventh hour with some kind of ridiculous demand. And not just on climate, on all issues, because Russia has the understanding of the UN as a self-service shop."
In order to "deal with Russia," he says the global community should start thinking about making trade offs. The trouble, he said is that "no-one knows what is to be traded off against what with Russia, because Russia is very often a black box."
Developing countries doing their bit
On the other hand, he is quick to defend the record of developing countries, whose efforts are "often forgotten", he said.
"Brazil has committed before the turn of the year to reducing its emissions in the Amazon by 70%. Indonesia has committed to reducing its emissions by almost 100% in Borneo, which is the largest spot of deforestation. Of course it is not related to industry, but it’s still a big chunk of emissions. So this has changed!"
"Developing countries are doing something. They’re committing. We can all say they’re not doing enough, and we need compliance, but they’re doing something."
'Arrogant Europeans'
And in the face of those efforts, Singer says developing countries are getting little in return from the Europeans.
"Europe has fundamentally missed out on giving at least a minimum of cash to developing countries. By arrogantly, really arrogantly, saying 'sorry it’s a negotiation, we want to see what the others are doing'."
"This is a recipe for disaster. And Europe is going to be slaughtered by the group of developing countries for that."
