After some hesitation, US President Barack Obama, who had been planning to attend the early part of the conference, has decided to come to Copenhagen at the end instead, the White House said on Friday (4 December), attributing the change to growing momentum for a new accord.
Obama will be joining the 98 world leaders who had already confirmed their attendence at the conference. Most are expected to come for the final two days, when the meeting of heads of state and government is to take place (16-18 December).
Not the end of the road
But after two years of preparatory work, only one thing seems certain: Copenhagen will not mark the end of the process, but is rather expected to set out a legal framework for more detailed negotiations to continue during the course of 2010 (EurActiv 18/11/09).
Optimists say such delays are nothing new in international negotiations and are not necessarily a recipe for failure. After all, it was only four years after an agreement had been reached on the Kyoto Protocol that details were finalised to allow ratification, they point out.
Negotiators are hoping to work more quickly this time, leaving the legal details to 2010. Crucially, Copenhagen should set out a clear action plan and a timetable for moving to a legally binding agreement, EU leaders have stated (EurActiv 30/10/09).
UN climate chief Yvo de Boer has outlined the elements required to make Copenhagen a success in terms of concrete figures and measures on mitigation and funding.
Specifically, developed countries must agree binding targets for significant emission cuts by 2020 while developing countries must outline measures to halt their emissions growth below a business-as-usual scenario, de Boer said. In addition, rich countries will have to provide long-term financial assistance to poorer ones and set up a €10 billion climate fund to help them adapt to the immediate impacts of climate change, he added.
Finally, the negotiators must agree to establish a governance structure that will deliver these goals, de Boer said.
Adding it all up
However, as the long-awaited conference opens its doors, pledges made so far are not enough to halt global warming below the 2°C which scientists stress is necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN scientific body, estimates that in order to meet this target, developed nations must cut emissions by 25-40% by 2020.
"If you look at the kind of offers that are on the table, they are just a few billion tonnes short per annum of the kind of emissions cuts that you need to get on target for 2020," said Nicolas Stern in Brussels last week. The British lord, author of the influential 'Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change', pointed out that it will require a significant push to limit emissions and said that it is still possible to secure an agreement on strong targets.
"I think the extra bit that we have to go would require some increase in commitments from countries that have already indicated their intentions and also an intensification of the fight against deforestation," Stern said.
Nevertheless, environmentalists have warned that the actual cuts might be significantly lower than stated, with many loopholes built into the targets. The real results will depend on how many offsets are allowed and whether countries are allowed to carry over surplus credits from the Kyoto compliance period, warned WWF, the global conservation group.
Developing economies have also put carbon-cutting plans on the table, but these are not comparable in that they are not related to absolute emission reductions. The EU and the US are maintaining a tough stance on emerging economies, and they will have to take decisive action, the EU and the US have been arguing.
Last month, China pledged to cut its carbon intensity – the amount of carbon emitted per unit of GDP – by 40-45% from 2005 levels (EurActiv 26/11/09). Meanwhile, India revealed a target of raising solar power output from near zero to 20 gigawatts by 2022, expecting international financial and technological assistance to carry the plan through.
The EU, which will be a major contributor to future financial aid, has stressed that the current pledges are not enough to secure an agreement in Copenhagen (EurActiv 30/11/09). The bloc is keen to push other countries to upgrade their pledges, dangling the carrot that the bloc would be ready to improve its offer to 30% cuts if others make comparable commitments.
US ambitions have attracted particular criticism for being insufficient, as President Barack Obama's pledge to cut emissions by 17% from 2005 levels amounts to little more than stabilisation of emissions at 1990 levels.
On financing, an agreement appears even more difficult to reach, as the EU is the only one to have put figures on the table. The bloc argued that developing nations would need €100bn a year by 2020 to fight climate change but did not specify its own contribution, expecting proposals from others first.
The US Senate is considering a proposal to provide international aid for forest preservation and deployment of new low-emissoin energy technologies in developing countries (EurActiv 04/12/09). The plan is seen as the foundation for US international financial commitments to be presented in Copenhagen.
But funding will be crucial to getting developing countries on board, as "no money, no deal" has become the catchphrase of international negotiators.
World on course for 3.5°C warming
Currently, the Copenhagen deal is headed for 3.5° global warming, new analysis by Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) warned last week (4 December).
Assessment of the targets stated so far by a new web-based system showed that emissions would not peak before 2040. The IPCC argues that this needs to happen by 2015 to avoid dangerous climate change.
"After accounting for the new position of Russia, the announcement of President Obama of a US emission reduction pledge for Copenhagen, the developed country emission reductions as a whole are currently projected to be 13-19% below 1990 levels by 2020," said Dr Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics. But the proposed forest credits for these countries would bring this down to about 8-14%, he added.
The low reduction target is unconditional for most countries, but the higher 14% target has been made conditional on a strong Copenhagen agreement by most countries, Schaeffer said.
While Norway, Japan and Brazil are at the high end, both the EU and the US fared rather badly, the researchers said. However, if the EU decided to move from 20% to 30% cuts as promised should other developed nations make similar commitments, it would move into the medium range, they said.
