Reaching the 10% target for biofuels in transport by 2020 would not "overly stretch the [EU's] land availability", according to an impact assessment conducted by DG Agriculture and published on 24 July.
The assessment predicts that 15% of arable land would need to be used for biofuel production by 2020, a figure that the Commission considers "relatively modest". Much of the increased biofuel production would take place on "set aside" land, which is reserved under the Common Agricultural Policy to limit excessive production by farmers.
While the Commission argues in its assessment that the use of set-aside land would not lead to an increase in pesticide or fertiliser use, environmental groups have countered that this would be detrimental for wildlife.
WWF, for example, supports the 10% biofuels target, but under the condition that it is coupled with energy efficiency measures and an EU-wide sustainability certification scheme, including set aside land for conservation and wildlife.
In terms of prices, the Commission foresees a 3%-6% "long-run" increase of cereal prices compared with 2006 levels. Changes in feed prices for livestock "would appear relatively moderate to neutral", since by-products from biodiesel and bioethanol production could be used to feed the animals, according to the Commission.
But the Commission's conclusions on land use and prices depend to a great extent on the availability of second-generation biofuels at an industrial scale, as this would decrease land-use requirements as well as the EU's reliance on biofuel imports.
Without second-generation biofuels, however, costs, imports and land use would increase considerably, according to the Commission.
The assessment also points out that relying on first-generation biofuels alone would not be sufficient for reaching the 10% target simply in terms of fuel production. The assessment puts 2014 as the date when second generation technology would likely become available.
In related news, the NGO Eurobserv'ER has published its annual "Biofuel Barometer" for 2007, which reports an 80% increase in EU biofuel consumption since 2005. Germany in particular has witnessed a significant increase in the consumption of crude vegetable oil, which is considered a fully fledged fuel.
