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Carbon dioxide emissions show record jump

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Published 06 December 2011

Carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels have soared in the last 20 years, giving the world much less chance of avoiding dangerous climate change, new data show.

The research was published as lead negotiators were arriving at the UN climate talks in Durban, South Africa, where prospects of a new global treaty on climate change appeared to have stalled, with deep divisions between developed and developing countries.

Emissions from burning fossil fuels rose by 5.9% in 2010, bringing the total rise since 1990 - the baseline year for calculating emissions under the Kyoto protocol - to 49%. Measured over two decades, that is an average annual increase of 3.1%.

Corinne Le Quéré, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, and an author of the research, said the data showed that little had been achieved over 20 years in reducing the risks from climate change.

"There have been efforts to use more renewable energy and improve energy efficiency but what this shows is that so far, the effects have been marginal," she said. "We need to do something about the 80% of energy that still comes from burning fossil fuels."

She said the problem was urgent, as the chances of holding global temperature rises to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels beyond which climate change becomes catastrophic and irreversible, were dependent on emissions peaking by 2020 at the latest. Scientists regard the 2-degree target as the limit of safety.

Governments meeting in Durban this week are focusing on a new treaty that, if it can be achieved, would not come into force until 2020. "That would be too late, unless strong actions are taken in the meantime," said Le Quéré.

Some governments and policy advisors have been advocating a different approach to the climate negotiations, suggesting that a system of voluntary reductions in emissions undertaken by national governments and industries could be more effective than a "top-down" global treaty. But this so-called "bottom-up" approach did not appear to be working currently, Le Quéré said, as efforts to cut emissions so far had little impact outside Europe, where emissions have been successfully reduced.

The study, published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Climate Change, found that global carbon emissions were likely to carry on increasing at a rate of about 3% per year. It was accompanied by another study offering new proof that climate change is linked to human activities, including burning fossil fuel.

Chris Rapley, professor of Climate Science at University College London, said: "These two new results offer a stark message. Human carbon emissions are certainly disturbing the climate system upon which we depend, and in spite of the economic slowdown, and despite all the efforts by governments, businesses and people to reduce them, our emissions are reaching new highs. The climatic consequences, already emerging, will grow over time, and are irreversible.

"A new level of decisive action is required now to achieve real emissions reductions. World leaders at the climate negotiations at Durban know the score; the opportunity to act consistent with their responsibilities and rank lies before them. We can only hope that they rise to the challenge."

Julia Steinberger, lecturer in ecological economics at the Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds, said the research showed that even the recession had barely made a dent on the rise in greenhouse gas emissions.

"The worst economic crisis in decades was apparently a mere hiccup in terms of carbon emissions: a temporary drop for the richest countries in 2009, and hardly perceived by emerging economies," Steinberger said. "These findings are truly shocking, and constitute a global wake-up call.

"The economic crisis should have been an opportunity to invest in low-carbon infrastructure for the 21st century. Instead, we fostered a lose-lose situation: carbon emissions rocketing to unprecedented levels, alongside increases in joblessness, energy costs and income disparities. Surely the transition to a green economy has never seemed more appealing."

Fiona Harvey for The Guardian, in content partnership with EurActiv

COMMENTS

  • This is hardly surprising because the mechanisms used to calculate the tCO2eq are faulted at the core.

    An example of note which is fostered by the advisors to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Control) is a typical example, and that is the faulted and discredited calculations for the emissions associated with those from Land Fill sites. In every example we have seen the natural observance of a mass balance of the chemistry shows an under-estimation by 10 fold....I repeat by TEN TIMES the actual amount. But this is one of the simplest things to correct.

    A further example is that relating to the emissions calculated from fossil-fuel burning power stations. Here the fundamental flaw is the fact that water vapour is as much a green house gas as carbon dioxide. And with both of these being dispersed at an elevation that crosses the flight-paths of many aircraft it is evident that the actual dispersal location and elevation is ignored.

    And then there is the massive emissions of radioactive elements to the atmosphere from these same power stations. How are these related to the emission statements?

    By :
    Paul Hu
    - Posted on :
    06/12/2011
  • The rise in the outlet of CO2 frightens me!To cut it rapidly ought to be priority one for those who care for our future.

    But what will be the comments of the environmentalists? Probably that we must rapidly close all nuclear plants. They have successfully got Germany to take that road. Maybe Switzerland too.

    Fighting Global Heating seems not to be the first priority of the environmentalists. I know persons who take that ass a signal that Global Heating might not be so dangerous after all.

    By :
    Hadar Cars
    - Posted on :
    06/12/2011
  • The oceans control the Co2. AS an organic gardener, I have recently been mulching with seaweed I pick up on the beach. I heard it makes wonderful fertilizer. If you worry about carbon you should see how black as coal this seaweed is when it dries. The soil looks grey by comparison.

    I am for learning mmore by watching how the earth handles its balance. It is truly an amazing self correcting thing of which we are a small part. I am suspicious of silk stocking lawyers who protect the enviornment from sterile skyscrapers in comploetely unsustainable places like NYC or LA.

    By :
    claresolt
    - Posted on :
    07/12/2011
  • NOVEMBER, WARMEST MONTH ON RECORD IN RHODE ISLAND

    By :
    Martha
    - Posted on :
    07/12/2011
  • Politicians will only act on climate change if they perceive that there are votes in moving towards a green agenda. Lobby your MPs with accurate information and emphasise that your political bias is towards the greenest political parties when voting in elections. There needs to be agreement across all parties as to the agreed course of Green action regardless of which party is in power.

    By :
    Lisa Linsdell
    - Posted on :
    08/12/2011
Background: 

The EU has set itself a legally binding goal for 2020 of reducing its CO2 emissions by 20% and increasing the share of renewable energy by the same amount, both measured against 1990 levels.

A target of a 20% increase in energy efficiency has also been set but it is not legally enforceable. The low-carbon roadmap in March this year stated that if it were met, emissions cuts would automatically rise to 25%, five percentage points above the target.

In October 2009, EU leaders endorsed a long-term target of reducing collective developed country emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. This is in line with the recommendations of the UN's scientific arm - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - for preventing catastrophic changes to the Earth's climate.

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