The overall draft target for 2020 – of 95 grams of CO2 per km (g/km) for cars and 147 g/km for vans – is expected to remain unchanged.
But sources indicate that the super-credit threshold for cars will be lowered to 35g/km, with a "multiplier factor" of 1.3, and a cap of 20,000 vehicles per manufacturer.
At present, only electric cars such as the Vauxhall Ampera, with its combined tail pipe emission of 27g/km, would qualify for the super-credit scheme. But critics argue that when full lifecycle emissions are counted, even the best performing electric vehicles top around 60g/km.
Greg Archer, a programme manager at Transport and Environment, an NGO, said that if super credits had been reintroduced into the proposal, it would be “regrettable”.
“They simply reduce the need for manufacturers to improve the efficiency of conventional vehicles,” he said. “This will cost drivers money in higher fuel bills.”
The complicated language belies a history of lobbying by car manufacturers against tough fuel efficiency standards, counter-lobbying by environmentalists, and attempts by Brussels to balance between these, and its own internal locus of gravity.
The enterprise directorate at the European Commission, for instance, has consistently supported super credits, much to the chagrin of the EU’s climate directorate.
Super credits were first introduced in the last round of fuel efficiency regulations in 2008 to entice car companies into manufacturing vehicles, with emissions below 50g/km.
Only electric vehicles could do that and, as the figure was substantially below the 175g/km target for 2017, each vehicle emitting less than 50g/km was counted as up to 3.5 vehicles, allowing manufacturers to emit the equivalent extra amount of CO2 from their other vehicles, up to a maximum of 25,000 vehicles per car-maker.
“The legislation aims at encouraging the development of [breakthrough] technologies, despite the high costs involved, by giving super credits for cars that emit less than 50g CO2/km until 2015,” the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) said at the time.
However, passenger cars are currently responsible for about 12% of Europe’s carbon dioxide pollution and environmental concerns have been sharpened by a 26% rise in roadside emissions between 1990 and 2008.
The automobile industry association says that fuel efficiency regulations lead to a cost increase that they must pass back to the consumer, so hitting car sales at the forecourt.
But the evidence for this has been contested, and insiders say that ACEA lobbied hard for a super credits exemption in the current legislation.
A spokeswoman for ACEA declined to comment on any aspect of the EU’s new proposals, until they had been published.
Any super-credits concession has been condemned by the consumer organisation BEUC, and will not be universally popular in the car industry either.
EurActiv has seen a letter sent to José Manuel Barroso, the EU president, from ‘Cleaner Car Contracts’, an association of auto leasing and fleet owning companies, calling for the Commission to be “as ambitious as possible” in its proposals.
“Loopholes, super-credits or other modalities that lead to specific support for specific technologies are unwelcome as they make rational cost-based decisions unnecessarily complicated and unpredictable,” their letter says.
“Moreover, they slow down fuel-efficiency improvements,” the missive adds.