EurActiv Logo
EU news & policy debates
- across languages -
Click here for EU news »
EurActiv.com Network

BROWSE ALL SECTIONS

UK Met Office: 2013 ‘very likely’ to be in Top 10 warmest years

Printer-friendly version
Send by email
Published 21 December 2012, updated 02 January 2013

Next year is likely to be one of the warmest on record with global temperatures 0.57 degrees above the long-term average, Britain's Met Office said in its annual year-ahead forecast.

“It is very likely that 2013 will be one of the warmest 10 years in the record which goes back to 1850, and it is likely to be warmer than 2012,” the Met Office said on Thursday (20 December).

Next year was expected to be between 0.43 and 0.71 degrees Celsius warmer than the long-term global average of 14 degrees (1961-1990), with a best estimate of around 0.57, it said.

The forecast is based on Met Office research, as well as data from the University of East Anglia, the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Rising temperatures could be due to the natural variability of the climate and global warming from increasing greenhouse gas emissions, said Dave Britton, a Met Office forecaster.

A warmer global average temperature does not necessarily mean every region of the world will get hotter, as regional climate variability produces different effects in different parts of the world, he added.

Eleven of the 12 hottest years on record have occurred since 2001, according to data from the World Meteorological Organisation.

Last year is ranked the warmest on record, having been 0.54 degrees above the long-term average, while 2012 is ranked the ninth warmest, with a rise of 0.45 degree Celsius.

Rising global temperatures

Most scientists blame increasing temperatures on man-made greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, and say they can lead to rising sea levels and extreme weather events such as superstorm Sandy that hit the US east coast in October.

Last week, a leaked draft report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed that global average temperatures could be more than 2 degrees above average by 2100, and could reach 4.8 degrees.

Low-lying island states and other countries vulnerable to rising sea levels, floods and hurricanes have been putting pressure on developed countries to curb greenhouse gas emissions and keep the rise in temperatures to within a limit of 2 degrees this century.

Global carbon dioxide emissions hit a record high in 2011, led by China, the International Energy Agency said in May.

A UN conference aimed at curbing emissions ended this month with little progress.

Next steps: 
  • Late 2013: UN IPCC Fifth Assessment of Climate Change report to be released
EurActiv.com with Reuters

COMMENTS

  • This is extremely unlikely after one of the coldest and wettest years in the UK for 100 years!

    By :
    Andy B
    - Posted on :
    23/12/2012
  • 16 years of no "Global Warming" and you still claim CAGW exists? The computer models are wrong & have been proven so by observed, factual data. The new IPCC report is backing away from the models & showing natural causes drive out climate.

    By :
    Gary Pate
    - Posted on :
    23/12/2012
  • A billion pounds a year to the Hadley Center and they still produce works of fiction and spout nonsense.
    No warming since 1998, a beetle in a matchbox would offer greater insight, pathetic.

    By :
    BSMSnudge
    - Posted on :
    25/12/2012
  • Say it early, say it often and hopefully the people will believe it.

    By :
    pinroot
    - Posted on :
    26/12/2012
  • Here is the question. Why is man-made global warming being pushed so hard as the major cause of the unusual weather patterns around the globe? Why is it being turned into dogma that forbids any dissent? What do its proponents have to hide? Do they fear open discussion will prove their theories wrong? Do these people believe in God?

    Many scientists are either atheists or agnostics; and, a good number of climate scientists fit this mold. They blame today's wild weather patterns on greenhouse gas emissions from burning of fossil fuels after studying computer models. They fail to include geological evidence disputing their theories. After all, they're not geologists; they're climatologists and meteorologists.

    Geologists study more than computer models of global climates; thus, they can give evidence of even higher temperatures just a thousand years ago, during an era known as the Medieval Warm Period, in which Greenland was totally ice free, making it easier for Vikings in Iceland to travel west to Greenland and settle there as well. So, what can climatologists say about that period? Was man-made global warming behind those warmer temperatures?

    By :
    Eileen Kuch
    - Posted on :
    26/12/2012
  • Look up weather action there on the comments pages you will see Piers Corbyn explain that we are heading for a little ice age and to expect more of this type of weather in the coming years.

    By :
    Andy B
    - Posted on :
    26/12/2012
  • The current favourite denier myth of the moment - that there has been no warming since 1998 needs addressing. First models do indeed predict temporary halts in warming because of other cycles within the Earth's climate system - of these the ENSO ( el Nino/La Nina oscillation )is probably the most significant. 1998 saw a particularly large El Nino - since then the La Nina ( cooler ) pacific water cycle has dominated. Please witness Arctic ice melt and the moving north of pests/diseases as well as more variable weather around the globe ( climate change ) predicted as a consequence of GW ( weaker and more sluggish jet-stream ). If those espousing the view that AGW is a myth would like to link to peer-review science saying same and also give their qualifications/expertise on the subjet. Do not just state it as fact because you don't like being told things and your ignorance on the subject blinds you to the science but also the obvious. AGW theory stands criticism because all drivers of warmth have been eliminated as the culprit bar CO2. "The present level is higher than at any time during the last 800 thousand years, and likely higher than in the past 20 million years. ( Wiki.) Oh and BTW: Ice ages/inter-glacials are/were caused by eccentricities in the earths orbit and currently the NH should be cooling.

    By :
    Tony Barton
    - Posted on :
    26/12/2012
  • Idiots! if they think anyone,anywhere still believes the warming mega-scam

    By :
    Mr Pastry
    - Posted on :
    27/12/2012
  • Tony
    Some facts on CO2, first of all it is 1.5 times heavier than air so most of it is at ground level not up in the upper layers. It is also only a minute trace gas not as most of the press would have you believe a major gas of 5 to 10% of the atmosphere it is in fact only .039% an eg of this % would be Big Ben in London is 316' tall if this was a graph only 1.5 inches would represent CO2 and of this only 1/8 of an inch would be man made. As everybody knows the biggest greenhouse gas is water vapour @ 4% 100 times greater than CO2 which we have no control over!!

    By :
    Andy B
    - Posted on :
    27/12/2012
  • All those prophets at the UK Met Office, when their prophecy doesn't eventuate, then they should be told,"Pick up your lunch , piss of home & don't come back!

    By :
    It is I only
    - Posted on :
    27/12/2012
  • UEA. They're the mob who lost the data and didn't Dr. Viner from there predict no snow by now? These people are charlatans to put it politely and still they are taken seriously by a deluded few. As for Hildegard I guess she is protecting her well paid job. Telling lies is one of the prerequisites on the job application. I see they quoted UEA, GISS and NOAA the three worst offenders in the climate scam.

    By :
    Lawrie Ayres
    - Posted on :
    29/12/2012
  • "Arab Spring" - an adventure that has no any relation to the true interests of the peoples of the Middle East. Honorary Consul of Macedonia to Armenia Arayik Sargsyan

    http://bs-kavkaz.org/2013/01/sargsyan-arabskaja-vesna-avantura-ne-imejuschaja-otnoshenia-k-podlinnym-interesam-narodov/

    By :
    ARAYIK SARGSYAN, academician, President of the Academy of ge
    - Posted on :
    02/01/2013
  • This seems to have "warmed up" a lot of people. The weather is so unpredictable I have lost faith in long term forecasts (weren't we supposed to have a barbeque summer last year?. I just want to have some sun in the summer for more than the odd 2 weeks.

    By :
    Eleanor
    - Posted on :
    02/01/2013
Background: 

Extreme weather events are rare, which means that statistics are not always available to analyse them. But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s extreme weather report found it probable that the incidence of heat waves and floods had increased in recent years, although there are strong regional variations.

A rise in extreme coastal high water related to increases in mean sea level was also rated at between 66%-90% probability. IPCC scientists also expressed confidence that droughts were becoming more intense and longer, particularly in southern Europe and West Africa, but in central North America and northwestern Australia the reverse seemed to be happening.

More on this topic

More in this section

Advertising

Videos

Climate & Environment News

Euractiv Sidebar Video Player for use in section aware blocks.

Climate & Environment Promoted

Euractiv Sidebar Video Player for use in section aware blocks.

Advertising

Advertising