Geopolitical Futures

Global Europe 06-06-2017

Qatar: a testament of Saudi weakness

The recent diplomatic row proves that Riyadh is struggling to maintain Arab unity, writes Kamran Bokhari.

Global Europe 01-06-2017

NATO’s diminishing military function

The lack of consensus at the recent NATO summit is also apparent when it comes to the alliance’s counterterrorism efforts, writes Antonia Colibasanu.

Global Europe 24-05-2017

No bluffing: US preparing to attack North Korea

The United States is advertising its preparations for war. North Korea assumes the attack is inevitable, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 11-04-2017

What a US president wants and what he must do are two different things

Donald Trump may want the United States to be less involved in the world but the reality is that the US is deeply involved, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 01-02-2017

Kazakhstan changing to secure continuity

Kazakhstan and the wider region of Central Asia are on the cusp of significant change, albeit largely unrecognised by the rest of the world, writes Kamran Bokari.

Global Europe 11-01-2017

Thinking about propaganda

Propaganda speaks the language of reason, even when its goal is to mislead, writes Jacob L. Shapiro.

Trade & Society 25-10-2016

Wallonia strikes out at Canada

There are historic reasons behind the Walloon rejection of CETA, and a price to pay for post-Napoleonic Britain having engineered Belgium as a nation in gridlock, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 19-10-2016

Compromising in the Caucasus

A change in the status quo of the frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would affect all regional players, writes Antonia Colibasanu.

Euro & Finance 13-10-2016

Joy and despair in European statistics

Europe needs more than temporary growth to boost its economy, write George Friedman and Antonia Colibasanu.

Global Europe 17-08-2016

Nationalism, technology, and the Olympics

The Olympic Games have turned into a competition between nations, rather than individuals, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 19-07-2016

The Turkey coup looks like the most incompetent undertaking imaginable

Whatever happened on Friday 15 July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emerged stronger than ever and can now arrest anyone he wants on charges of treason, writes George Friedman.

Euro & Finance 14-07-2016

Decision-making and disarray in the EU

The EU’s complex bureaucracy has prevented it from dealing with crises effectively, writes Antonia Colibasanu.

Global Europe 28-04-2016

Obama and the European Union

European integration was an American idea. If the European Union falls apart, it is hard to see how NATO survives, even in its current state, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 11-04-2016

France confronts Germany on defence

For the French, building a European military force around France and Germany is the necessary precondition for any solution to Europe’s growing challenges. But this goes counter to Germany’s fundamental sense of self, and its interests, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 06-04-2016

Erdogan’s not mad, he’s ruthless

If President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is going to become the single centre of power in Turkey, he must crush his domestic opposition and the PKK, and with its refugee deal, the EU is helping him do that, writes George Friedman.

Fighting terrorism requires massive intrusion into society

Any successful counter to terrorism can’t be carried out by security forces. It must be carried out by intelligence services, and massive intrusion in society is needed, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 22-03-2016

Hungary, Poland and illiberal democracy

The EU’s problem is that others are following the illiberal regimes of Hungary and in Poland, and it is possible that among them be Germany, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 15-03-2016

Why Putin went into Syria

The Russians intervened in Syria in order to bail the United States out of a very difficult situation, and obtain better understanding for their interests with Ukraine, writes George Friedman.

Future EU 23-02-2016

Brexit and the ongoing saga of the EU

What has emerged in the last two years is a European Union where member states pay attention to European regulations only when it suits them, and an EU leadership that does nothing about it, writes George Friedman.

Europe's East 16-02-2016

The EU has no leaders

The EU is an apparatus, and that is not something people can trust, writes George Friedman, comparing the US presidential election with the crisis of leadership elsewhere in the world.

Brexit 05-02-2016

Is the EU finished if the British leave?

Those who say that if the British leave, the EU is finished are right. Not because Britain is an indispensable member, but because for other members, sovereignty matters too, writes George Friedman.

Global Europe 28-01-2016

Why does Patrushev warn of an American plot against Russia?

Coming from Nikolai Partushev, a senior Russian official, and former head of the intelligence service close to President Vladimir Putin, statements about an American plot against Russia have to be taken seriously, writes George Friedman for Geopolitical Futures.

Beware of Italy’s banking crisis

The looming banking crisis in Italy spells trouble not just for Europe’s fourth largest economy, but also for the EU and an already sputtering global economy, writes Jacob Shapiro for Geopolitical Futures .

Global Europe 22-01-2016

Germany is the poster child of an accident waiting to happen

Export-oriented Germany is the poster child for an accident waiting to happen, according to a review of countries most affected by the ongoing global economic slowdown,  George Friedman writes in Geopolitical Futures.