So far, twenty countries have submitted production forecasts on delivering the EU's objective of sourcing 20% of its energy from renewable sources by 2020.
In the country reports, member states estimate whether they expect production to exceed their interim domestic targets or whether they will need help from others to meet them.
Many member states, including France and the Czech Republic, said they expect to follow indicative trajectories that set midterm goals up to 2020. This means that they do not expect to need help to meet their own targets, nor to contribute towards others' goals.
A few member states announced that they expect to exceed their goals. These countries expressed an interest in transferring the volumes that exceed their indicative trajectories to other countries to help them achieve their goals. These include Sweden and Denmark, where renewables penetration is already above average. Germany and Spain also fall into that category.
Only a few nations expressed doubt as to whether they would reach their domestic production goals. Belgium said it "does not exclude the possibility of using the cooperation mechanisms" to meet its objective, while the Netherlands pledged to make "temporary efforts" to step up its energy policy "in the unlikely event" that it does not manage to keep up with its indicative trajectory.
Potential cooperation projects include a pan-Mediterranean Solar Plan, an idea raised by France and Spain, and offshore wind parks in Germany.
Moreover, several other countries stressed the need for further development of interconnections. Ireland called for the development of offshore grids to harness wind power, while Spain and Portugal expressed concern about the lack of electricity links between the Iberian Peninsula and the rest of Europe.
Detailed policy measures to follow
Experts cautioned that the documents are political and the figures presented in them will be reviewed before the June deadline for submitting national action plans. In those, countries must detail the actual measures that they intend to take to reach their stated goals.
A Commission progress report last year showed that growth in renewable energy production has been too slow and progress patchy up to now (EurActiv 30/04/09).
Optimists led by Spain
One of the most optimistic countries was Spain, the current holder of the EU's rotating presidency, which estimated that it would cover 22.7% of its energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020, overshooting its 20% target. Moreover, Madrid would exceed its 40% target for renewables in electrical power generation by 2.3%.
To accomplish this feat, Spain would need to more than double its share of renewables in its energy mix - which currently stands at 10.5% - in the next decade. Moreover, Spain has a poor track-record in complying with EU renewables legislation. It came second only to Italy regarding the number of infringement procedures started against member states by the European Commission under the 2001 Renewable Electricity Directive.
However, the Spanish government said achieving the target will be possible with greater energy savings.
Mischa Bechberger, international affairs manager at the Spanish Renewable Energy Association (APPA), said that the renewables sector was "surprised positively" by the fact that the government had sent out a message that it was expecting to overshoot the target by nearly three percentage points.
"But there are surely some question marks, mainly about the high energy-efficiency evolution they assume and also the connection to the Europe-wide electricity grid," he cautioned. "This is in any case one of the major preconditions for renewable energy in Europe in general, but in Spain – having only minor interconnection capacities with the European grid – in particular."
Moreover, he said energy efficiency can be interpreted in different ways. For example, the economic recovery may be slower in Spain, allowing electricity consumption to stay at the low levels of 2009. After a decade of strong growth in electricity demand, it is questionable whether consumption will level off, he added.
According to Bechberger, the renewables industry is pushing to increase the national target in line with studies showing that Spain still has much untapped renewable energy potential. But he regretted that the government has not informed them where they currently stand on the renewable energy action plan.
"We don't know which kind of scenarios they have already prepared, but this has to be based on something more than just these few assumptions they put in the forecast document," Bechberger added.
