The IEA yesterday (11 May) released technology roadmaps for solar photovoltaic (PV), which generates electricity using solar panels, and concentrating solar power (CSP), which collects sunlight with giant mirrors and focuses it on a liquid to produce steam that then drives a turbine.
It estimates that each technology has the potential to supply more than 11% of global electricity by mid-century, offering combined savings of nearly 60 billion tonnes of CO2 per year by 2050.
The IEA, however, assumes lower growth rates than the industry is expecting. Its PV roadmap estimates that the annual market growth rate will be 17% over the next decade, while the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) said last month it expected global cumulative capacity to grow by at least 40% in 2010 (EurActiv 01/04/10).
Provided that the appropriate political frameworks are put in place, solar PV could become competitive with fossil fuels on residential and commercial buildings by 2020 in many regions and at utility scale by 2030 in the sunniest regions, the documents show. CSP could become competitive for peak and mid-peak loads by 2020 in the sunniest places.
But rather than competing with each other, the IEA argues that the two technologies are complementary. While PV technology employing solar panels will mainly be used for on-grid distributed generation, CSP will involve utility-scale production in sunny areas, from where it can be transported to population centres.
"The firm capacity and flexibility of CSP plants will help grid operators integrate larger amounts of variable renewable electricity such as solar PV and wind power. PV will expand under a broader range of climate conditions and bring clean renewable electricity directly to end-users," said Nobuo Tanaka, IEA executive director.
To harness the potential, governments will have to move to set up long-term, solar-specific incentive schemes that support early deployment and ensure funding for R&D and demonstration, the agency stressed.
In the long term, as PV technology matures, the industry and grid operators will need to develop new technologies to integrate large amounts of PV to the grid, the IEA said. For CSP, a major issue will be building transportation capacity over long distances, it added.
These incentives will need to evolve over time to foster innovation and technology improvements. To support cost reductions and longer-term breakthroughs, governments also need to ensure long-term funding for additional research, development and demonstration efforts.
The idea of transporting large quantities of solar energy has already spurred major European projects the Mediterranean Solar Plan and the European Desertec venture, which aims to bring solar energy from North Africa to the European market via a high-voltage cable (EurActiv 22/07/09).
The IEA expects North Africa to be the largest CSP producing region by 2050, followed by Africa, India and the Middle East.
