Zukunft der Energieversorgung: IEA sieht schwarz[en] 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook report forecasts the world's future energy supply and demand for the coming decades. 

Issued on a yearly basis, the successive reports have so far tended to reflect the Western world's energy interests and have been rather conservative in their projections and recommendations.

This year's outlook comes with oil prices having reached an all-time high based on doubts concerning remaining world reserves, production and refining capacities. These are exacerbated by a surge in demand fuelled in large part by emerging economies.

The 2005 World Energy Outlook, issued on 7 November by the International Energy Agency, possibly contains the strongest warning signal ever issued by the Paris-based agency.

Assuming current policies remain unchanged ('reference scenario'), it forecasts that by 2030:

• global energy demand will rise by over 50% (60% of which expected to be covered by oil and gas)
• world energy resources will be sufficient to meet this demand but $17 trillion in investment will be needed to bring them to consumers 
• global dependence on Middle East and North Africa oil and gas will rise from 35% today to 44% by 2030; Saudi Arabia and Iran together are expected to meet some 45% of the growth in demand; Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Libya are the fastest growing producers
• in these countries, oil production will increase by 75%, while natural gas production is expected to treble
• this would entail an annual $56 billion investment every year in infrastructure 
• oil prices ease to $35 in 2010 as new crude oil production and refining capacity comes on stream and will rise to $39 in 2030 ($65 in nominal terms)
• energy-related CO2 emissions rise by 52%

The report produces two alternative scenarios. In the 'deferred investment scenario', investments in producing countries are delayed, leading by 2030 to:  

• a sharp rise in energy prices ($52 or $86 in nominal terms)
• a slowdown in global GDP growth
• a slowdown in energy demand as a consequence

In the 'alternative policy scenario', consuming countries change their policies to reduce global oil and gas demand. It forecasts that by 2030:

• global energy demand will rise by 37%
• the world will continue to rely heavily on Middle East and North Africa supplies
• energy-related CO2 emissions will rise by 30%

Mr. William C. Ramsay, deputy executive director of the IEA, warned that the projections "lead to a future that is not sustainable - from an energy-security or environmental perspective". 

"At a time when experts debate whether the world will run out of energy, these results are particularly relevant. We must change these outcomes and get the planet onto a sustainable energy path," he said

The IEA says the need for more comprehensive and transparent data on oil and gas reserves in all regions is now becoming "a pressing concern". It points to inconsistencies in the way reserves are defined and measured and to "a lack of verifiable data". 

"Uncertainties about just how big reserves are and the true costs of developing them are casting shadows over the oil market outlook and heightening fears of higher costs and prices in future," warns the IEA.

The warning comes after the UK Department for Trade and Industry (DTI) announced on 2 November that it would launch an investigation on the arrival of 'peak oil', "within the next few weeks". 'Peak oil' theory defines the moment at which oil production reaches a high and then starts to decline due to depleting reserves.