With the final December 10 deadline approaching in talks on the future of Kosovo between Pristina and Belgrade, and EU-wide recognition of Kosovo's independence unlikely, Europe and the US are currently discussing bilateral recognition, report BIRN authors Gjeraqina Tuhina and Krenar Gashi - adding that the main focus of the talks is getting the major European countries on board, while smaller EU countries can join in later on.
According to diplomatic sources, so far 22 of the 27 EU states are currently ready to recognise Kosovo as an independent country, including major countries such as Germany, France, the UK and Italy, BIRN claims.
Slovenia, which will chair the EU in the first half of 2008, is believed to be among the supporters of unilateral recognition of Kosovar independence. The BIRN paper quotes the Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel as saying that his country would support the independence of Kosovo if "an adequate group" follows suit.
However, it seems unlikely that EU countries – unlike the US – will recognise Kosovo immediately, according to the authors.
The most likely scenario is that full recognition by a majority of EU countries will not happen until the second half of 2008, when France will take over the EU presidency from Slovenia. Quoting a high-ranking diplomat, the French "want to be the ones that 'solved' the big problem", BIRN claims.
Kosovo's leaders have made it clear that they will not accept more talks on this issue after the December 10 deadline. "Kosovo cannot be held hostage", the authors quote Kosovo's President Fatmir Sejdiu as saying. Experts believe that Kosovo's parliament might wait until the beginning of 2008 before making the declaration of independence, BIRN says.
The talks between the Europeans and the US on bilateral recognition of Kosovo are the result of a deadlock in the Troika-mediated talks between Serbia and its renegade province, the paper says. EU leaders regard unilateral recognition of Kosovo without UN approval as the worst-case scenario, but also recognise their need to act, BIRN states.
The authors conclude that recognition will, obviously, have to wait until actual declaration of independence. Slovakia, Romania, Cyprus, Greece, and Spain are unlikely to recognise Kosovo independence for the time being. But they made it clear that they would not block the deployment of a new EU mission to Kosovo, and that they will allow all EU instruments to be used in this mission.
