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Islands Parlament stimmt für EU-Beitrittsverhandlungen

Veröffentlicht 17. Juli 2009 - Aktualisiert 29. Januar 2010
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Iceland
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Islands Parlament hat am Donnerstag (16. Juli 2009) einen Plan der Regierung unterstützt, die Beitrittsverhandlungen mit der Europäischen Union aufzunehmen, ein komplett undenkbares Unterfangen, bevor die globale Finanzkrise die Wirtschaft der Insel zerstört hatte. 

Icelandic membership of the 27-nation bloc is still years away, after what promises to be long and tough negotiations, especially over the island's cherished fishing rights. Members of parliament voted 33 to 28 in favour of an EU application after a final round of marathon debates lasting almost a week. The government needed 32 votes to gain approval. Two MPs abstained. 

Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir, whose Social Democrats fought hard to win support for the bill from their EU-sceptical coalition partner, has made joining the bloc a priority, seeing it as key to Iceland's economic recovery. 

"This is probably the most historic vote in the history of our parliament, since the founding of the republic. I have no doubt that this decision will be beneficial to the people of Iceland," she told Reuters. 

"Now we must ensure that we bring home a treaty that we can put before the people and recommend." 

Sigurdardottir said an application could be sent in the next few days in order to reach Brussels in time for the foreign ministers' meeting on the 27th of this month. But she warned that talks could last as long as three-and-a-half years. 

Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, whose country holds the six-month EU presidency, said in a statement he welcomed Iceland's decision to apply for membership. 

Road to stability 

The issue of membership shot to the top of the political agenda after an economic meltdown whose speed and scale shocked many, even in the context of the current global recession. 

"I am hopeful that this will give a bit of a credibility boost to Iceland in the eyes of the wider world," said Jon Bentsson, an economist at Islandsbanki. 

The vote clears the way for the application to be sent to Brussels within days and for the government to put the question on actual membership to voters in a referendum.

Icelanders - just 320,000 in number - have warmed to the European Union but remain protective of their sovereignty and worry about losing control of fish stocks. 

Dozens of anti-EU protestors gathered again outside of parliament, banging on pots and honking horns. 

"It is a loss of independence for the nation," said Gunnnar Guttormsson, outside of parliament near a long line of Icelandic flags. "I have no words for it. It is the worst thing I can imagine for the people." 

A Gallup poll in May showed 61.2% in favour of EU talks and 29.6% against. But those polled were evenly split over the issue of actual membership. 

Joining the European Union was almost unimaginable before the volcanic country was cast into the centre of the global financial storm when its top three banks collapsed in a matter of days last year. 

"You could say that the Icelanders want the euro but don't want the EU," said Finance Minister Steingrimur Sigfusson, who is also leader of the Eurosceptic Left-Greens. 

But the prime minister is hopeful that EU membership helps bring greater economic stability and prosperity again for a country that was once one of the world's wealthiest on a per capita basis. 

Still, even with the cost of insuring Icelandic sovereign debt against default falling after the vote, analysts said investors would not be rushing. 

"There is no miracle cure for Iceland, they have to take a number of small steps," said Lars Christensen, an analyst at Danske Bank. "As long as Iceland risks going bankrupt the EU will not allow it in." 

(EurActiv with Reuters.) 

Stellungnahmen: 

European Commission President José Manuel Barroso welcomed the Icelandic parliament's decision: "The decision of the Icelandic parliament is a sign of the vitality of the European project and indicative of the hope that Europe represents. Iceland is a European country with long and deep democratic roots. Iceland has very close relations with the EU after some 40 years of EFTA (European Free Trade Association) membership and 15 years in the European Economic Area (EEA). It is now up to the Icelandic government to follow up this decision by officially applying to the presidency of the EU." 

Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said: "I am pleased that the EU's enlargement agenda may soon extend to Europe's north-western corner as well, with Iceland, a country with deep democratic traditions, in addition to our continued commitment to South East Europe." 

Michael Emerson, a political analyst at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), outlined the timeframe of the country's EU path.

"Iceland in the early autumn will see the council of the EU invite the European Commission to prepare an opinion on the subject. The Commission will then go to Iceland and review all aspects of the question and deliver a report. That would go on for a few months. 

"From then on, it could go quite quickly because all the economic part of the subject matter, the single market, is already covered by Iceland's presence in the European Economic Area. 

"It remains to be seen whether some issues like fish will prove difficult negotiation points. And than we will have to see if the Icelandic people still like the idea. A 'yes' should not be taken for granted. There'll be tensions. 

"I do suppose the Lisbon Treaty will be passed this autumn. If it is not, if there is a new crisis over the Lisbon Treaty, I would say to Iceland 'forget it'. 

"For joining, 2011 looks pretty quick. The Commission's opinion business will take us into early 2010, then there will be the negotiation period and the signing of the accession treaty could be on 1 January 2011, then ratification. So it would be 1 July 2011 or 1 January 2012," Emerson said. 

He added that eurozone membership could take place in principle two years later, but Iceland would need to meet the criteria. 

"I am not sure where Iceland would be then on these criteria. The public debt criterion could prove difficult," Emerson concluded. 

Jon Bentsson, an economist at Islandsbanki, said that the parliament decision "alleviates some of the uncertainties". 

"At least the government is on a somewhat more secure footing now that this has been approved. Of course, now that the application has been approved and the application is being handed in to Brussels, not much is going to happen until the new year […] I am hopeful that this will give a bit of a credibility boost to Iceland in the eyes of the wider world. At the very least, it brings a bit more calm on the political front," he said. 

Einar Mar Thordarson, a political scientist from the University of Iceland, said that the Icelandic government's bid for EU membership may stumble over agriculture and fisheries and its ability to convince islanders to back entry. 

"The primary hurdle will be the EU's fisheries and agricultural policy, which might cause intense debate between Iceland and the bloc [...] We shouldn't forget that Icelanders are narrowly divided on membership. It's not a given that a membership deal will be approved in a referendum," Thordarson said. 

"For the past 10 years, Icelanders have been divided into three groups, 40% favour membership, 40% oppose membership and 20% are undecided," he added. 

Hintergrund : 

Iceland was severely hit by the economic downturn. Prior to its meltdown, Iceland's banking-sector assets had grown from about 96% of GDP in 2000 to about 800% by the end of 2006, and were worth around 10 times its GDP on the eve of the crisis. 

But late last year, the country received a $10 billion financial rescue package led by the International Monetary Fund. 

Iceland's centre-right government collapsed in January following the country's bankruptcy as a result of the global financial turmoil. Since then, the country has been governed by a centre-left coalition under interim Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir. 

As Croatia's EU accession bid continues to stall, Brussels has indicated that Iceland is welcome to apply for membership, providing a piggy-back for amendments to the Lisbon Treaty promised to Ireland in the hope of obtaining a positive result in the second referendum on the text, planned for October (EurActiv 30/01/09). 

Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said that accession talks with Iceland could be completed swiftly, as the county is part of the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement, which he says could serve as a "shortcut" in accession negotiations (EurActiv 21/11/09). 

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