Rumänien wählt: Neue Regierung, gleiche Probleme[en] 

When Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU on 1 January 2007, shortcomings remained regarding judicial reform and the fight against corruption - and in the case of Bulgaria, the fight against organised crime. These shortcomings carried the risk that Bulgaria and Romania would not be able to correctly apply Community law and Bulgarians would not be able to fully enjoy their rights as EU citizens. 

A Cooperation and Verification Mechanism was set up to assist both countries. The latest annual reports on Bulgaria and Romania were prepared by the EU executive's secretariat-general under the authority of the Commission President José Manuel Barroso, in agreement with Vice-President Jacques Barrot, and were published on 23 July (EurActiv 24/07/08). 

Romania benefited from a much shorter report and milder criticism, while Bulgaria was threatened with the suspension of roughly 500 million euro of EU funding. Later, the Commission confirmed that Sofia would lose some 220 million euro of pre-accession funding (EurActiv 26/11/08). 

A return to power by the Social Democrats (PSD) is possible, according to some polls, while a coalition with the National Liberal party (PNL) of current Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu also appears plausible. 

Support for the PSD rose to 35%, overtaking that of the President Traian Basescu's Liberal Democrats (PDL), which garnered 32%. The Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) should get at least 5% of the vote, enough to pass the threshold to be represented in Parliament. 

Mircea Geoana, a former foreign minister who now leads the Social Democratic party, recently said he would be willing to negotiate with any party to form a majority coalition and return to power. 

For the first time, Romanian general elections will be fought under the principle of absolute majority. There will be no run-off. Also for the first time, parliamentary and presidential elections will not coincide with one another, since recent changes to the constitution increased the length of the president's mandate from four to five years. 

Political anayst Cristian Parvulescu said that with the PSD back in power, the next government would not block judicial reform. However, he believes that an improvement in the present situation, characterised by a lack of effective sentences against top officials, is not to be expected. 

Alina Mungui-Pippidi, president of the Romanian Academic Society, a think-tank, says that only a clear victory by Basescu's PDL would guarantee the climate needed to strengthen the rule of law. But without a clear victory, she foresees prolonged legal battles, which would "destroy everything built by [prosecutor] Monica Macovei," while "attempts to remove those prosecutors which dear to aim at the higher level would intensify". 

Monica Macovei is a highly-respected figure in Brussels for persistently pursuing judicial reform and fighting corruption. But she was removed from the position of justice minister in 2007 (EurActiv 03/04/07). 

More recently, there have been attempts to remove the head of the national anti-corruption directorate Daniel Morar from office (EurActiv 21/08/08). Morar has indicted several top officials, including former prime minister and former PSD leader Adrian Nastase. 

Jean-Michel de Waele  of the Université Libre de Bruxelles, an expert on Romania, said the new government would have no time to waste in showing it had the political will to bring the leniency of the past to an end. 

"The [next] government will need to undertake efficient political measures. This is what is expected in Brussels, concrete actions, not political declarations," said De Waele. 

The Economist Intelligence Unit warned that a government led by the PSD would increase the chances of Romania being sanctioned by the next Commission monitoring report, to be published in May. The analysts recalled that it was the PSD who were most opposed to bringing government officials to justice. 

Commission sources who declined to be named said the EU executive had "coercive instruments" at its disposal, such as imposing a safeguard clause that would declare decisions by Romanian tribunals as void. "It is a very tough political gesture, even if it may not prove efficient in practice," the source said. Also, Europe can withhold funds. "Have you seen that the Bulgarians have now started to move?," another source said, referring to recent decisions which deprived Sofia of 220 million euro of pre-accession funding. 

In a recent interview for AP, PSD leader Mircea Geoana  was cautious about the future, even if he was elected prime minister. 

"It's going to be tough. We'll have to fasten the seat belts for at least for 12 to 18 months to be realistic," he said. He also warned against stereotypes whereby his country would be seen to be "turning left". 

"This is not a change of government, not a traditional switch from right to left […] We are speaking about a revolution into how the Romanian modern state should operate," said Geoana.