"The first is that both Cypriot leaders simultaneously seek and need a settlement," Carras notes.
Demetris Christofias, president of the Republic of Cyprus, is facing re-election in 2013, whilst Mehmet Ali Talat, the Northern Cyprus leader, faces a poll in April 2010. Both are under pressure from nationalist opposition.
"The two leaders are thus committed to an early settlement both by shared political values and by common interest," the author writes.
"The second reason is that the Greek elections on 4 October have produced a government committed both to a settlement in Cyprus and, in parallel, to helping unblock Ankara's road towards EU accession," Carras adds.
"A parallel evolution of thinking within the EU represents a third positive element […] The EU cannot retain its international credibility if it dishonours its commitment to negotiating Turkish accession in good faith," he notes.
"The fourth positive element concerns Turkey. The AKP government has been almost unique among Turkish governments since 1974 in appreciating first that Turkey faces economic and social issues more critical for its people's future than the maintenance of military control in Cyprus, and second that not seizing any opportunity for a reasonable settlement imposes on Turkey an unnecessarily heavy diplomatic, economic and political cost," the author comments.
"Fifth, the current Greek Cypriot leadership knows the oft-repeated canard that, EU accession having been secured, Greek Cypriots do not need a settlement, is false," Carras writes.
"Sixth, the UN has made a notably positive contribution from 2004 to 2009. It encouraged in depth polling in both communities. It has provided a welcoming ear to suggestions intended for the benefit of all," he notes.
"Paradoxically the final positive factor is the fear of failure. Failure would condemn Greek Cypriots to an even longer-term loss of their economic and emotional stake in the area currently under military occupation. Failure would not rescue Turkish Cypriots from international illegality and isolation but would surely increase conflict over these issues. It would ensure Ankara's road towards EU accession became a veritable path of thorns," the author writes.
"Thus now, if ever, and with restrained, subtle but determined assistance from the international community, a reasonable settlement can hopefully be found," Carras concludes.
