"North Korea and South Korea engaged in an exchange of artillery fire on an island in the West Sea. The incident came in some ways a surprise to the South Koreans, as it came at the same time the two countries were discussing an exchange of Red Cross officials.
However, it also came at a time when North Korea had been ramping up tensions by revealing its uranium nuclear enrichment programmes and with satellite photos showing potential activity around North Korea's nuclear test sites.
The attack happened along the so-called Northern Limit Line: this is the extension of the demilitarised zone into the West Sea. It's a line that the North Koreans have never accepted. What the line does is run along a series of five islands that basically hems in North Korea and hems in its southern ports, particularly the deep water port of Haeju.
The attack took place while South Korea was carrying out exercises in the area that the North Koreans claimed were provocations. It's not entirely unusual for the North Koreans to carry artillery exercises in the area and fire into the sea; but it's extremely unusual for the North Koreans to actually fire on the South Korean islands.
There were at least two deaths and several injuries, both of military officials and of the civilians who live on the island, who are mostly fishermen.
South Korea has carried out a somewhat measured response. President Lee Myung-bak has told South Korean military officials that they should respond firmly but not escalate the situation. The South Korean military has suggested that if North Korea continues to carry out activities of this sort it may result in South Korean strikes against North Korean missile facilities on the southern coast. Then we would be moving into a new area of escalation between the two Koreas.
There are a lot of questions as to why North Korea decided to escalate to this level. Similar to the sinking of the Chonan, we now have them shelling directly onto South Korean islands and South Korean territory. This is a change in behaviour on behalf of North Korea and is activity that we haven't really seen since about the 1980s.
Some of this may be linked to the ongoing leadership change when Kim Jong-Il finally consolidated power and the state re-launched the Tapedong missile - Kim's way of displaying to the world that he was strong and coming into power from a position of strength. There has been some expectation that Kim Jung-Un apparent is going to do something similar as his heir. However, that is mostly focused on a potential nuclear test.
These types of military escalations may reflect disagreements within the North Korean leadership. As to how best to engage with the South, they may reflect a concern within some elements of the North Korean leadership that some individuals are going to be losing power during transition.
One of the things when Kim Jung-Il took over was that we saw massive purges. We're already hearing reports of purges with Kim Jung-Un taking over and there may be some sort of power play going on."
