The EU is "coming closer" to raising its offer to 30%, Carlgren said. But he stressed that the agreement would cover only half of global emissions without similar commitments from the United States and China.
"An ambitious bid by the United States and also by China is absolutely crucial for an agreement in Copenhagen," the minister stated.
Carlgren emphasised that the EU's strategy of using the 30% carrot to leverage more ambitious commitments from other parties had proven successful so far. He cited higher emission reduction targets from Russia, Japan and Norway, and greater efforts by South Korea, Indonesia and Brazil.
Speaking to EurActiv, Mark Kenber, policy director at the Climate Group, stressed that securing a deal in Copenhagen is now beyond EU diplomacy. "It is important to keep the pressure up, but I don't think the EU can do much at this point," he said, insisting that the ball is in the US camp.
The United States will propose emission reduction targets before Copenhagen, according to a White House official, the BBC reported yesterday (23 November). The target is expected to be in line with figures contained in legislation before the Senate.
Last June, the House of Representatives passed a bill setting the goal of reducing overall US greenhouse gas emissions by 17% from 2005 levels by 2020, and 83% by mid-century. This amounts to roughly 3-4% below the 1990 level used by the EU.
A Senate version is aiming for a 20% cut by 2020.
Finalising EU's negotiating mandate
The extraordinary meeting of environment ministers was called to put the finishing touches to the EU's negotiating position for Copenhagen (EurActiv 20/11/09). The ministers confirmed the EU's expectations for the Copenhagen conference, and decided that the mandate agreed by EU leaders last month is sufficient.
Although a fully-fledged and legally binding new climate treaty is not expected to be concluded until next year, the ministers agreed that Copenhagen would still need to provide a binding agreement. This should include economy-wide carbon reduction targets for industrialised countries and commitments to reduce emissions below business-as-usual scenarios from developing countries.
"We have also concluded that an agreement needs to contain a review mechanism so that it can be upgraded in line with new knowledge presented by science in order to manage the challenge of climate change," Carlgren said.
EU to push for immediate funding
Environment ministers stressed that developed countries must agree on a financing package in support of poor countries.
They agreed that an ambitious agreement in Copenhagen would have to include fast-track financing, delivered between 2010 and 2012, before a new legally binding treaty enters into force. This would pay for immediate action on adaptation and capacity-building in least-developed countries and fund immediate action on deforestation, Carlgren said.
"The EU will in any case deliver ambitious financial support in Copenhagen [...], but we also urge other countries to do that as well," he stressed.
The environment ministers said that the EU would keep the door open to talk about putting a specific figure on the table at the EU summit on 10 December, in the midst of the Copenhagen negotiations.
"But whether it will happen or not will depend also on where other parties are," Carlgren said. He added that the EU was still looking to pressure other countries into an ambitious global level of short-term financing in the range of €5 to €7 billion annually.
Immediate action will be necessary in crucial areas like deforestation and setting up levies for bunker fuels to provide funding for adaptation, the environment ministers said.
UN urges EU to put figures on the table
Speaking to EU environmental ministers, UN climate chief Yvo de Boer stressed that the remaining sticking points can be overcome, but there needs to be more clarity on both emission reduction targets from developed countries and measures planned by developing nations to "significantly limit their emissions from a business as usual path".
"We need clear targets in Copenhagen, and not just a range of commitments," he noted, hinting at the fact that the EU has promised to boost its commitment from a 20 to 30% reduction if other industrialised countries, namely the US, follow suit.
"To restate the goal of minus 30% would be to show true leadership," De Boer underlined, saying that the EU needs to be clearer on the role played by the carbon market, but also on the role of land-use and forestry in calculating the European target.
The EU must also be clearer on the level of financing it is willing to provide both for helping developing countries to adapt to global warming and mitigate the effect of climate change.
"A Copenhagen deal will be stillborn if it does not include new additional and predictable finance," he said. Auctioning of emission rights is an effective way of mobilising finance, he said, but "significant public money is needed and the world is waiting for the EU to commit to concrete numbers".
