Auf dünnem Eis: Europas Klimapolitik und globale Position [en] [fr]

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The December publication claims that climate policy may be the only EU policy where the "internal and external dimensions are so fundamentally and clearly intertwined". It warns that while Europe's aim to strengthen its global leadership on climate change through domestic policies is praiseworthy, it is also risky.

The researchers believe the EU's ability to convince other countries to follow the example set by its ambitious 'triple 20' goals on emission reductions, renewable energy and energy efficiency by 2020 will rest on whether it can demonstrate that it is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions domestically without compromising economic growth, as well as its effectiveness as an 'honest broker' between the developed and the developing world.

The EU's goals for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) summits in Poznań in December 2008 and in Copenhagen in 2009 can be summarised as follows, the paper claims: 

• Developing a shared vision to reach the ultimate objective of the UNFCC;
• Strengthening and extending global carbon markets;
• Developing, deploying and transferring the necessary technology to reduce emissions;
• Establishing adaptation measures to mitigate the effects of climate change;
• Action on deforestation;
• Addressing emissions from international aviation and maritime transportation.

The climate package, which is being negotiated by EU leaders at the same time as the closure of the Poznań conference, is closely linked to the outcome of the negotiations on a succesor treaty to the Kyoto Protocol, Van Schaik and Van Hecke explain, as "several key elements of the Commission proposals are made dependent on whether or not a future international climate agreement is achieved". They add that many of the package's design choices are relevant to the international negotiations.

Measures like changing the baseline year for emission reductions under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and expanding project-based mechanisms in developing countries to generate emission credits give positive signals to the Union's negotiating partners and grant the EU a "strong mandate" for a new international agreement, the paper argues. But many uncertainties remain, not least the question of what will happen to the bloc's ambitions in the event that no post-Kyoto agreement is reached, it adds.

"Any failure to come to an agreement on the package would fundamentally undermine the EU's negotiation position in the international talks," Van Schaik and Van Hecke state, warning that the EU is a relatively inflexible negotiator due to the nature of intergovernmental decision-making. 

"Although the EU has provided strong leadership in the past decade, current negotiations may require a more robust and diplomatic approach," they conclude.