The "dramatic" consequences of climate change are increasingly in the public eye, remarks Harrison – citing floods and heat-waves as contemporary examples.
However, the 6 September article outlines several "subtler" and "less visible" ways that climate change can "destabilise economies" and "unsettle political relationships" – the effects of which are particularly noticeable in central Asia.
Harrison notes that glaciers and permafrost provide a continuous supply of fresh water to the lowlands of central Asia, thus "allowing economic activity to take place", yet climate change continues to cause "striking" reductions in such ice cover – particularly in Kazakhstan's Tien Shan range.
The Tien Shan - and surrounding area - is the "economic powerhouse" of the country, and draws its water supply from environmentally-vulnerable sources in areas prone to severe flooding, avalanches and "catastrophic" debris flows.
Meanwhile, extensive data collected since 1879 makes it clear that "climate change is having an impact in the region", including rising air temperatures and rapidly-melting glaciers – citing the Tuyuksu glacier as an example.
Harrison describes 75-80% of river runoff in the region as being "derived from glaciers and permafrost", and so their recession threatens the water supply and thus the farming economy.
Moreover, water supply problems could destabilise the region politically too, believes Harrison – as many of the rivers cross regional boundaries. China also plans to use Kazakh water, meaning that there is a threat of "conflict" over water supply and its sustainable usage cannot be achieved without a "high level of political agreement".
Harrison concludes that the Kazakh example shows that climate, landscape, political and economic systems are "intimately related" – and that assessing future risks from climate change is "about more than producing flood hazard maps" or predicting sea-level rises.
Moreover, it shows that climate change can rapidly "disrupt the context within which economic and political decision making operate".
Harrison warns that politicians have "consistently failed to listen to the warnings or take them seriously", and that climate change has some "very unpleasant surprises" in store.
