With the Kyoto Protocol set to expire in 2012, the world urgently needs another international agreement if there is to be "one last clear chance of avoiding unacceptable risks of catastrophic climate change," says Purvis.
Analysts suggest only modest progress will be made at the G8 meeting in Japan this summer due to record oil prices, a weakening US economy, volatile financial markets and the fact that the "US and Europe seem to many an ocean apart on climate change policies," says Purvis.
Europe wants to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2020, whereas the Bush Administration "believes US emissions will need to continue to rise until 2025," says Purvis. He thinks many in Europe and the US are waiting for what they presume will be a more climate-friendly US administration in 2009 before starting negotiations. This, he says, would enable both sides "to forge an environmentally stronger pact then and to deny President Bush the legacy of having crafted a transatlantic climate compromise".
But Purvis suggests there are three big reasons why a climate pact must be hammered out in Japan:
- A strong G8 statement on the preferred design of the post-2012 climate framework is required;
- if other nations bypass the US this time it will make it harder to achieve a compromise next time round, and;
- delaying major decisions until next year would jeopardise the international agreement to conclude a deal by 2009.
Purvis believes pressure within the US is pushing the Bush Administration into a corner, forcing it to find common ground with European G8 members. "Unless President Bush changes posture on climate change, he will end his tenure on the wrong side of history," claims Purvis. While Bush's decision in April this year to allow US emissions to rise until 2025 left European nations unimpressed, at least "it is the first fixed quantitative emissions target endorsed by the Bush Administration," he adds.
Furthermore, explains Purvis, Bush has said he would be willing to make the US proposal legally binding internationally as long as other major economies were willing to include their plans in such an international agreement.
Europe's aim at the G8 will be to persuade others to sign up to internationally-negotiated and legally-binding national emission targets of 50% by 2050, says Purvis. Meanwhile the US position will be to let developed nations set their own nationally-determined emissions targets and make them legally binding only if major emitters "also agree to mitigation commitments," he explains.
Purvis drafts a joint text for G8 leaders to adopt: "All major emitting nations should make quantitative and legally binding commitments to mitigate their emissions significantly by 2020. Developed nations should commit to quantitative, legally binding and fixed national emission targets."
He concludes that instead of waiting for a new American President, "transatlantic policymakers should strive to make as much progress this year as possible".
