The report was prepared by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat and presented to industrialised nations at a recent informal UN meeting in Vienna (EurActiv 03/09/07).
Using projections based on figures from re-insurance companies, the World Bank and international financial institutions, the report predicts that returning global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to today's levels by 2030 would cost between USD 200 and 210 billion.
Much of this money - about 46% - would need to flow into the developing world in order to fund "green" technologies, modern infrastructure and other investments that can offset emissions resulting from rapid economic growth. But an investment of this magnitude would also translate into global GHG emissions reductions of approximately 68%, according to the report.
John Hay of the UNFCCC's climate change secretariat told EurActiv that the figure represents a "conservative" estimate, since current GHG emissions levels are used as the reference point, rather than for example 1990 levels.
No comparative figures exist for current climate change-related global investment flows because "there is a lack of a global policy framework" for dealing with the issue, Hay said.
In addition to increased development aid, government spending and private investments, which account for the lion's share (86%) of potential investment flows, the "carbon market - which is already playing an important role in shifting private investment flows - would have to be significantly expanded to address needs for additional investment and financial flows", the report says.
Under the Kyoto Protocol's Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM), industrialised nations are able to offset emissions at home by buying carbon credits that fund "clean" projects in the developing world. The EU's own Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is linked to these mechanisms (see our LinksDossier).
The report will be presented as a reference document for establishing a global policy framework for dealing with climate change during the 3-14 December UN Climate Change Conference in Bali.
UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer is hopeful that the Bali meeting will produce a "long-term international agreement on climate change" that "could could allow the expansion of existing [carbon] market mechanisms to a market of USD 100 billion per year.”
