An early excerpt from the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook shows that global warming gases spewed out by power plants could decline by 3% this year. As a result, the organisation has lowered its expectations for emissions in 2020 by 5% from just a year ago, even if no additional policies have been put in place by then.
The report was presented to climate negotiatiors at the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Bangkok on Tuesday to bring home the message that the successor to the Kyoto Protocol, set to be agreed in December, must halt global warming below 2°C. It argued that the economic downturn is an opportunity to halt emissions growth before reaching the limit that the UN's scientific body, the Intergovernmentral Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has identified as the threshold for catastrophic climate change.
"This gives us a chance to make real progress towards a clean-energy future, but only if the right policies are put in place promptly. The success of the UNFCCC process is crucial in this regard," said IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka.
The report argued that the use of fossil fuels would have to peak before 2020 and energy-related emissions should not be more than 6% above 2007 levels in 2020 to halt dangerous climate change.
CO2 emissions from OECD countries would have to decline steadily from 2007 levels. Other major economies, including China, Russia and South Africa, would have to see their emissions peak in 2020.
Most of the required reductions would come from energy-efficiency measures, while shifting from fossil fuels to cleaner energy would also contribute significantly, the report said.
The agency said that achieving the "energy revolution" would require $10.5 trillion to be made available to the energy sector between 2010 and 2030. This would represent around 0.5% of global GDP in 2020, increasing to 1.1% in 2030.
The biggest efforts would have to be made in non-OECD countries, which will need to invest an additional $197 billion in clean power, energy-efficiency measures for industry and buildings and next-generation hybrid and electric vehicles, the IEA said. It added that industrialised countries would have to be ready to provide financial support for these investments.
The report gave assurances that these costs would be largely offset by savings in energy imports and improved air quality.
Agreement on targets for emission cuts and financial help from developed countries has nevertheless not been forthcoming in the two-week talks in the Thai capital. Earlier this week, China accused rich countries of trying to "terminate" the Kyoto Protocol by seeking greater flexibility in implementing any emissions cuts (EurActiv 07/10/09).
