Beobachtungen zu den Ratifizierungsdebatten: Welche Aussichten für den EU-Verfassungsvertrag? [en] 

The main findings of this report are: 

• At the present time, it looks likely that the Constitution will to be ratified in 22 of the 25 member states, with only the Czech Republic and Poland rated as ‘unsure’ and the United Kingdom as ‘rather unlikely’. All countries applying the parliamentary procedure only are rated ‘highly likely’ to ratify. In the Czech Republic and Poland, the referenda will actually make ratification more likely, because the qualified majorities needed in parliament would be difficult to obtain. 
• Concerning political parties, there exists a broad political mainstream in favour of the Constitution in almost all member states. However, there are rather clear divisions at the centre of the political spectrum in the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Poland and Malta. Even in France, the positions of the mainstream political parties are not as clear cut as observers usually assume. 
• Procedures, timetables and political conditions for parliamentary ratification and referenda vary widely among the member states, making a ‘European’ debate difficult and giving little incentive for an exchange of views across national borders. Consequently, at this point in time, the focus of the debates is (still) predominantly national in all member states. 
• The key players in the debate are set to be national politicians. This holds out the promise of lively national debates on a European issue in particular in those countries where referenda will be held. Yet it also carries the risk that debates may be ‘hijacked’ by national actors pursuing a domestic agenda. European actors and transnational involvement of key players are still largely absent from the debates. 
• There seems to be a certain set of core issues that is recurring throughout the ratification debate in most of the member states. Nevertheless, these issues are looked at through national lenses and there appears to be limited scope for transnational influences. 
• Moreover, it is often the issues directly related to the Treaty, which are more technical in nature and thus inherently less interesting for the general public, that are used by proponents in their attempt to generate support for ratification, whereas political issues tend to be brought up more frequently in arguments put forth by opponents to the Treaty.
• Two issues are overwhelmingly used as an argument in favour of ratification of the Treaty: the provisions on CFSP and the enhanced role of the EU on the global stage that is perceived to derive from them. This seems to confirm that citizens want the EU to become more active in the field of Common Foreign and Security Policy. Indeed, the creation of the post of EU Foreign Minister is also expected to be used largely as a pro-ratification factor.

For the full analysis, please read the EPIN working paper.