While Gordon Brown insists that the Reform Treaty should be ratified by Parliament and that it will safeguard Britain's essential 'red lines', such as the national veto over tax, social security and foreign and defence policy, the eurosceptic lobby is campaigning for a referendum on the Treaty, notes the author.
One argument of the pro-referendum campaigners is that the government should hold a referendum to honour its promise to do so with the Constitutional Treaty, he says. This argument supposes that both the Constitutional Treaty and Reform Treaty would transfer large competences to the EU, notes Brady.
British trade unions are divided on the issue, he says. Some of them ask for a referendum because they believe that opt-outs, in particular the one on the Charter of Fundamental Rights, will hold. Others because they consider that the government's position on the Charter of Fundamental Rights means that UK citizens are being denied the social rights and protections from which other Europeans benefit.
The British press has contributed to spreading anti-EU feeling, though some newspapers have even joined the pro-referendum campaign, observes the author. For example, some have spread the false claim that EU bureaucrats want to remove references to the Queen from British passports and take away Britain's seat on the UN Security Council.
For pro-Europeans, the main reason for opposing a referendum is that the Reform Treaty will not change the way Great Britain is governed, notes Brady. Moreover, they believe that the chances of being able to win a referendum on such a highly complex document are minimal, he adds.
According to the author, officials in London tend to under-estimate the "exasperation in other EU capitals" over Britain's performance over the last five years of arguments on Treaty change. It is thereby "inconceivable" that the other European governments would be willing to offer more concessions to make the Treaty more palatable to the British, he argues.
If the country were to block the Reform Treaty following to a negative referendum, the other countries might well adopt it, asking Britain to negotiate a special status outside the Union, notes the author.
He concludes that if Britain should vote, it should not be on the Treaty, but rather "it must be a decision about the EU as a whole", as proposed by Sir Menzies Campbell, the British Liberal Democrat Leader. British pro-Europeans assume that when faced with the stark choice between in and out, most Brits would opt for membership, adds Brady.
