The initial results of the research - conducted by polling firm Millward Brown IMS - are already known, although they will not be published until later today. They confirm information already revealed by EurActiv this week (EurActiv 09/09/08) that a compromise package aimed at convincing the Irish to return to the ballot box would likely have to include an opt-out on defence and keep the present system of one commissioner per country.
Indeed, according to The Irish Times, the study reveals that fears, particularly among women, that young Irish men could be conscripted into an EU army featured high on the list of justifications for the negative vote. The loss of an automatic right to have an EU commissioner representing Ireland also featured prominently.
A diplomatic source told EurActiv that if a defence opt-out must be the price to pay for an Irish 'yes' to the new Lisbon Treaty, then "so be it". Meanwhile, a Commission source was optimistic about keeping the current system of one commissioner per country, because other countries are also reportedly starting to have second thoughts about reducing their number.
But addressing Irish concerns in view of a revote on the Lisbon Treaty is easier said than done. Sources said a second referendum will only take place when polls indicate a shift in Irish attitudes towards future EU integration.
