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Moldova political crisis in deadlock

Published 18 August 2009
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The political crisis in impoverished Moldova appears likely to continue for several months, should the opposition Communist party choose to block the election of the country’s president, forcing repeated early elections in the first half of 2010, the Romanian press reported yesterday (17 August).

The Communist party (PCRM) will not support Marian Lupu, the candidate of the pro-European parties who together won the early elections held on 29 July, a PCRM leader told the Russian daily Kommersant on Monday. 

Vladimir Ţurcan, one of the leaders of the Communist party, said Lupu was a ‘traitor’ promoting a ‘radical nationalist policy’. 

Even before the elections, leading Western analysts viewed Democratic Party leader Lupu - a former communist who established his own opposition party following a political conflict with communist leader Vladimir Voronin - as a ‘kingmaker’ (EurActiv 28/07/09). 

According to press reports, the four pro-European parties, who have 53 MPs in the 101-seat parliament -- enough to form a government but too few to vote through their choice of president – have agreed on Lupu as their presidential candidate. To achieve this, they would require the support of at least eight communist MEPs. 

The Liberal Democratic, Liberal and Democratic parties and Our Moldova Alliance have formed an “Alliance for European Integration”, trying to pull Moldova out of months-long political stalemate as economic crisis hits the small nation. 

The first sitting of parliament, expected to be on Aug. 28, will kick-start the procedure for forming a new government and electing a president to replace the communist leader Vladimir Voronin, who cannot stand for a third consecutive term. 

The leaders of the “Alliance for European Integration” have also reportedly agreed on other top job appointments in the country, with Liberal Democratic party leader Vlad Filat favoured as the next speaker of Parliament and Liberal party leader Mihai Ghimpu being touted as prime minister. 

Doom strategies 

In recent days, the press reported that the communists may end up supporting Lupu, as they fear another early poll would be detrimental for them. According to the country’s constitution, two early elections cannot be conducted during the same year, and a next early poll could take place only in early 2010. 

But the statements by Vladimir Ţurcan appear to indicate that the Communists have now changed strategies, anticipating that the future reformist government would suffer a punitive vote in an early 2010 election, following a winter period of economic hardship for Moldova’s citizens. Similar developments took place in several Eastern European countries in the difficult early years of their transition to free-market capitalism, bringing back former Communists to power. 

“PCRM has announced that it would retract into a strong opposition, which would, under the conditions of the economic crisis, give it an advantage in the political struggle,” the communist leader is quoted as saying. 

Western analysts expect the country’s economy to shrink by 9 percent as remittances fall, with many experts also arguing that the country badly needs an IMF loan. Also, the situation in Moldova could be further destabilised by developments in the breakaway Transdniestria region, a ‘frozen conflict’ where Russia has a military contingent. 

Positions: 

Romanian MEP Adrian Severin, who is also vice-chair of the S&D group in the European Parliament, welcomed the creation of the governmental coalition. 

„We salute the news that the Democrat Party, the Liberal Democrat Party, the Liberal Party and the Our Moldova Alliance – parties represented in the Moldovan Parliament- formed a governing coalition which is explicitly meant to achieve prosperity and democracy in the Republic of Moldova as well as to pursue this country’s European integration,” Severin said. 

He added that such a coalition can well reflect the diversity of opinion of the Moldovan citizens and can constitute a broad political base to legitimize the new government. 

But the Romanian MEP warned that without EU support and without the accession perspective, the Moldovan society could not achieve the ideals of freedom, security, prosperity and democracy. 

The US Ambassador to Moldova Asif Chaudhry  called the election resulults “a very positive indication and a very positive trend”. In an interview to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Chaudhry said the US was in “a listening mode”, trying to give advice for Moldova securing an IMF loan, the condition being moving with an agenda of reform. 

“Moldova has to make a determination about what are they going to do to get through this economic difficulty and economic times. When the IMF team left after the first round of elections, the Moldovan government had to make a determination about what next steps to take and this is part of what they did. […] Eventually whatever they do, when the real money shows up in the streets of this country, then at that point whoever is in power in Moldova will have to decide what is the best way to move forward. And similarly the international organizations, like the IMF, will have to make a review and a determination about what is the best course to move forward in light of what might be happening in terms of other resources available and sources of funding,” the US ambassador said. 

Background: 

Moldova is a former Soviet republic, and was part of Romania before being annexed by the Soviet Union in World War II. It is landlocked between Romania and Ukraine. Moldovans speak Romanian, although the country's constitution calls it the 'Moldovan language'. Russian is also widely spoken. 

Transnistria, a Moldovan region east of the Dniester river, has been considered a 'frozen conflict' area since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. It has a predominantly ethnic Russian and Ukrainian population. Although internationally Transnistria is part of Moldova, de facto its authorities do not exercise any power there. 

The president of Moldova is elected by a three-fifths majority of the votes in parliament. The Communist party elected their fellow member Vladimir Voronin in 2001, and he was re-elected in 2005. Having completed two terms, he now has to step down. 

Elections held in April were marred by violence and fraud (EurActiv 08/04/09). The poll gave the ruling communists control of 60 seats in the parliament, just one short of electing their candidate Zinaida Greceanu as president. After successive votes in the 101-seat parliament failed to elect a president, early elections were called. 

After winning a combined majority of 53 seats in the Moldovan parliament, pro- European opposition parties said they would join forces to form a government, following the early elections held on 29 July (EurActiv 30/07/09). 

Unlike the Western Balkan countries, which are all on track for EU membership, EU-Moldova relations are dealt with under the European Neighbourhood Policy and more recently, the Eastern Partnership initiative (EurActiv 08/05/09). 

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