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Pro-Russia Yanukovich set to win Ukraine elections

Published 08 February 2010 - Updated 10 February 2010
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Ukraine's opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich is heading for a slender victory today (8 February) in a bitterly contested presidential election. But rival Yulia Tymoshenko refused to concede.

Yanukovich, 59, a beefy ex-mechanic who wants better ties with Moscow, claimed victory and called on Tymoshenko, 49, to resign as prime minister.

With almost 80% of votes counted, election officials gave Yanukovich 48.78% and Tymoshenko 45.56%. But Tymoshenko's camp offered a "parallel count" that saw her edge out her rival.

The official results appeared to cap a remarkable comeback for the rough-hewn Yanukovich, cast as the villain of the 2004 Orange Revolution when street protests overturned results that initially gave him victory in an election tainted by fraud.

The outcome could also see the country of 46 million people tilt back toward former Soviet master Russia after five years of bitter infighting and a sliding economy turned Orange euphoria into frustration and disappointment.

Both candidates pledged integration with Europe while improving ties with Moscow, but Tymoshenko is seen as more pro-Western. Yanukovich is unlikely to pursue membership of NATO, an 'Orange' goal that infuriated neighboring Russia.

Accusing Yanukovich of cheating, Tymoshenko's team said they had counted 85% of votes and that she was leading by 0.8 percent, presaging a possible messy legal challenge.

Each side accused the other of fraud, but Tymoshenko stopped short of repeating a threat she made last week to call people out onto the streets if she believed the election was unfair.

"I think that Yulia Tymoshenko should prepare to resign. She understands that well," Yanukovich said in a television interview. Exit polls put him three to four points ahead.

Tymoshenko was the co-architect of the 2004 revolution with pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, but their relationship quickly soured.

Looking stern before reporters, the fiery former gas tycoon urged her team to "fight for every result, every document, every vote". The tone was moderate, and analysts said they doubted Tymoshenko could stage a repeat of 2004.

Orange revolution buried?

Legal challenges and street protests would further delay Ukraine's chances of repaying more than $100 billion of foreign debt and nursing its sickly economy back to health after a 15% collapse last year.

In Russia, the source of the gas which flows through Ukraine's pipeline network to the West, the election was closely watched but state-controlled media avoided taking sides.

Sunday's vote, conducted in freezing temperatures and snow, appeared to reflect widespread disillusion among Ukrainians that the Orange Revolution had failed to deliver prosperity or stability.

Yushchenko came a humiliating fifth in the first round of the election in January.

The $120 billion economy has been battered by a decline in the value of Ukraine's steel and chemicals exports that has hammered the hryvnia currency, slashed budget revenues and undermined the domestic banking system.

Voters were unenthusiastic about either candidate but seemed to feel Yanukovich, a former premier who stressed the fight against poverty, had the best chance of restoring order.

"We lost five years of our lives thanks to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko," said Oleg Nochvyn, a miner in his 50s in the eastern region of Donetsk.

"For five years they were promising us - tomorrow will be better. Well, I get up the next day and it's worse than the day before [...] Under Viktor Fyodorovich (Yanukovich) we had everything - economic growth, everything was getting better."

Regardless of the outcome, squabbling was set to continue, reflecting the country's broader divisions. Ukraine is divided almost equally between a Russian-leaning east and south and a Western-friendly centre and west.

Assuming Yanukovich's victory is confirmed, Tymoshenko can expect in any case to be ousted as prime minister by a vote of no confidence in parliament.

Yanukovich will then try to form a new coalition to get his own ally into the role, or call a snap parliamentary election.

(EurActiv with Reuters.)

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Positions: 

Matyas Eorsi, head of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe's election observation mission, called the balloting ''calm'' and ''professional'' and said there was no evidence the vote had been stolen.

''We are 100% sure that this election was legitimate,'' Eorsi said. ''All the international community, and even more important, the Ukrainian public, can accept this result,'' said Eorsi, quoted by AP.

A preliminary report by international monitors is expected later on Monday.

Mikhail Okhendovsky, a member of Ukraine's Central Election Commission, said the board had no evidence of large-scale fraud but expects the loser to challenge the results in court anyway.

''In keeping with the traditions of Ukrainian elections, the loser never accepts defeat,'' he said before the polls closed.

Political science scholar Oleksiy Haran, of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, says the role of outgoing President Viktor Yushchenko, who played his cards against his former Orange Revolution ally, had been decisive.

"The results clearly show that if it weren't for the call by Yushchenko and [former Foreign Minister Arseniy] Yatsenyuk, who speak to the Orange electorate, to vote against both candidates, Tymoshenko probably would have won," he said, quoyed by RFE/RL.

Tymoshenko's estranged former Orange Revolution partner changed the election rules three days before the vote, one of several actions that prompted accusations he would do anything to help Tymoshenko lose.

Polish MEP Paweł Kowal (European Conservatives & Reformists), chair of the European Parliament's delegation to Ukraine, said that "free elections were once again held in a country which overcame communism, got through the period of the Second World War and Soviet domination. It is worth bringing these facts to the attention of the international community which is watching Kiev today".

"The door to Europe should be open to Ukraine," he added. "Orderly elections are an important signal for the European public opinion, that today Ukraine is a normal European country which has the right to make its European choice."

"I hope that this choice will be supported by the signing of the Association Agreement and the relaxation of visa requirements. I will be pursuing these goals as head of the EU-Ukraine delegation," Kowal concluded.

MEP Rebecca Harms (Greens/EFA, Germany), who also went to Kiev, called on both candidates to accept the result and - in case of doubt - to let the courts decide. "Ukrainian citizens are longing for reasonable and responsible politics, and not for the repetition of the 2004 protests," she said.

"I welcome the completion of the second round of voting in the Ukrainian presidential elections and the positive assessment given to the process by the OSCE/ODIHR-led International Election Observation Mission," said Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the Commission.

"I should in particular like to congratulate the people of Ukraine for the high turn out in both rounds of the elections and the strong commitment demonstrated to the democratic process," Ashton added.

"The European Union remains committed to deepening the relationship with Ukraine and supporting it in implementing its reform agenda. It looks forward to working with the new president to this end," she concluded.

Background: 

Ukraine held three elections from 2004 to 2007 and was about to hold another poll in 2008 before the president rescinded an order to dissolve parliament. 

On 7 February a run-off vote took place between opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich and populist Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko after the first round of presidential elections on 17 January produced no outright winner (EurActiv 18/01/10). 

The election will define how Ukraine, a former Soviet republic of 46 million people wedged between the European Union and Russia, handles relations with its powerful neighbours and may help unblock frozen IMF aid for its ailing economy. 

Just days before the first round, Tymoshenko promised that her country would become an EU member if she were elected president (EurActiv 15/01/10). 

After the first round, Yanukovich led with 38% of the vote, Tymoshenko had 24% and businessman Sergey Tigipko obtained 13%. 

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