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Ukraine’s Tymoshenko government ousted, Yanukovich seeks allies

Published 04 March 2010 - Updated 05 March 2010
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Ukraine's parliament dismissed the government of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko yesterday (3 March), giving her rival, newly-elected President Viktor Yanukovich, the difficult task of stitching together a new ruling coalition.

Deputies passed a motion of no confidence in Tymoshenko's administration, with 243 out of 450 voting in favour.

The fall of the government came almost a month after Yanukovich defeated Tymoshenko, co-architect of the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution, in a bitter presidential run-off, a narrow victory that is yet to restore much-needed stability.

Yanukovich's Party of Regions will now seek to form its own coalition within 30 days and a government within another 60, or face a snap parliamentary election.

After years of infighting with Orange co-revolutionary and former President Viktor Yushchenko, Tymoshenko had lost the loyalty of their fractious coalition. Her resignation or dismissal was seen as inevitable after the victory of her bitter rival Yanukovich on 7 February.

Yanukovich met with all faction leaders bar Tymoshenko's shortly after the vote and urged them to quickly agree terms.

"The (coalition) talks are not simple but I think they will be finalised in the coming days," Mykola Azarov, a close ally of Yanukovich and a likely candidate for the post of prime minister, told reporters after the vote.

Even if a coalition emerges, the fractious nature of Ukraine's parliament and the limited powers of the presidency mean that the country - split between a Russia-leaning east and south and a Western-friendly west and centre - may yet face further political instability.

"It's just a continuation of the problem," said Oleksander Pchela, a 20-year-old student in Kiev. "Tymoshenko will enter the opposition and demand new elections. There's no end in sight while people vote for personalities but not for ideas."

The nation of 46 million people desperately needs strong government to tackle a debilitating economic crisis that saw GDP contract by 15% in 2009, and to restart talks with the International Monetary Fund on a $16.4 billion bailout package.

The government says it does not expect IMF funds to be released before the second half of the year, leaving a hole of $3-5 billion per quarter that Ukraine must fill to cover government spending and debt payments.

Meeting of minds?

Ukrainian assets remained stable after the motion was passed - the hryvnia traded at 7.975/$ at the same level as in the morning, the Ukrainian Equity Index edged 0.5% higher to 1,822 points, while benchmark bonds were unchanged.

The bonds and credit default swaps - tradeable instruments that insure against a Ukrainian default - have strengthened in recent days however, signalling that investors have high hopes the political dust will settle soon. "The uncertainty surrounding the politics is likely to bring negative sentiment in the short term. However, these actions were deemed inevitable and the fact that political processes are moving relatively quickly is encouraging," Phoenix Capital, a Kiev-based brokerage, wrote in a note.

Local media said Tymoshenko, instead of staying on in a caretaker role, would take holiday leave and hand the reins to her deputy, Oleksander Turchynov. Justice Minister Mykola Onyshuk told Ukrainian television it was "a possibility".

Wednesday's vote sounded the death knell for the fractious coalition that emerged from the Orange Revolution, when street protests overturned Yanukovich's victory in a rigged election.

Tymoshenko has refused to recognise Yanukovich's 7 February win, which could tilt the former Soviet state back towards Russia.

"[...] This person, Yanukovich, presents a threat to (Ukrainian) independence, a threat to its territorial integrity, to democracy and freedom of speech," Tymoshenko told parliament.

Yanukovich's party is the biggest bloc in the chamber with 171 seats but is well short of the required 226 majority.

Seven of Tymoshenko's 153-member bloc voted to dismiss the government, alongside 15 of 71 members of the Our Ukraine bloc of ex-president Yushchenko - a critical force when it comes to forming the next coalition.

Besides Azarov, Yanukovich has named reformist former central bank chairman Sergey Tigipko and former Finance Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk as possible prime ministers.

Gleb Vyshlynsky, an analyst at GfK Ukraine, said a meeting of minds was likely between Yanukovich's party and Our Ukraine, who both want to avoid a potentially costly snap election.

"There is a 70% chance that they will manage (to form a government) in the coming week or two," he said.

(EurActiv with Reuters.)

Positions: 

Political analysts generally agree that the new government coalition will be based on Yanukovich's Party of Regions, the Litvin bloc built around parliament speaker Vladimir Litvin, and the 'Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defence' bloc, an electoral alliance associated with former President Viktor Yuschenko, the daily Komsomolkaya Pravda Ukraine writes.

The daily quotes Vadim Karasev, director of the Kiev Centre for Political Studies, as saying that the new government would be put in place around 20 March.

Some MPs from the 'Our Ukraine – People's Self-Defence' bloc would like to see as prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, at present leader of the liberal civic initiative 'Front of Change', a member of parliament and a former minister of foreign affairs (2007), political analyst Mihail Pogrebinskiy says. If Yanukovich were to accept him, a majority to form a new government would easily be found, he says.

Yanukovich: Looking for allies
Background: 

Ukaine's new President Viktor Yanukovich was on 1 March in Brussels, on his first trip abroad in his new capacity. He met EU leaders but neglected to call in at NATO headquarters (EurActiv 02/03/10).

Yanukovich said that European integration is the key priority for Ukraine. He also said that his country is interested in improving relations with Moscow, which were damaged during the mandate of his pro-NATO predecessor Viktor Yuschenko. Yanukovich will visit Moscow tomorrow (5 March).

At a time when Ukraine appears to be hesitating between developing its relations with the East or the West (EurActiv 18/02/10), Commission President José Manuel Barroso presented a rather generous package to his guest.

Once Ukraine is back on track with the IMF, with which it is negotiating a 16-billion euro loan, the European Union should be able to unlock more than half a billion euros in macro-financial assistance, Barroso said. Also, if reforms are undertaken in the gas sector, significant additional aid would be available, Barroso said.

Barroso said the EU's most far-reaching offer to Ukraine is the Association Agreement, which the Union decided to offer Kiev in September 2008, and the negotiation of which was stalled due to the difficult political situation in Kiev since. He said that that the agreement could be wrapped up within a year.

Last but not least, the Commission president said the sides had discussed visa-free travel and the need to establish a roadmap for achieving this goal.

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