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Violent clashes cast doubt on Egypt's election

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Published 23 November 2011

Egypt's army chief, seeking to defuse street protests that have left 37 dead, promised a swifter handover to civilian rule but failed to convince thousands of hard-core demonstrators, some of whom battled police through the night. Elections are due to begin on Monday (28 November).

One man was killed in clashes early today (23 November) in the second city Alexandria, one of several towns that saw unrest.

Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who has run the ruling military council since mass protests unseated his long-time ally Hosni Mubarak in February, made a faltering televised address Tuesday in which he promised a civilian president would be elected in June, about six months sooner than planned.

Confirming Egypt's first free parliamentary election in decades will start Monday, the council also accepted the resignation of the civilian prime minister and his cabinet, who had incensed democrats with a short-lived proposal that the army remain beyond civilian control under any new constitution.

But Tantawi angered many of the youthful demonstrators on Cairo's Tahrir Square and in other cities by suggesting a referendum on whether military rule should end earlier - a move many saw as a ploy to appeal to the many Egyptians who fear further upheaval and to divide those from the young activists.

"Leave! Leave!" came the chants in Cairo and, in an echo of February's chorus: "The people want to topple the marshal."

Long into the night, while small groups on the fringes skirmished with police in clouds of tear gas, those occupying the main square sang: "He must go! We won't go!"

It is a battle of wills whose outcome is hard to predict.

Protestors dig in

The field marshal, hanged in effigy on Tahrir Square in a visual echo of Mubarak's final days, seems intent on preserving the armed forces' vast business interests built up over six decades of effective military rule. But there was no renewal of earlier heavy-handed efforts to clear the area.

Parliamentary elections will start this coming Monday - a plan confirmed at a meeting between the army and politicians - but they will take till January to complete. It is not clear how a referendum on military rule might be organised, nor what alternative might be proposed until June's presidential vote.

The European Commission said yesterday (22 November) it was "closely monitoring the situation" and hoped that elections could still go ahead (see background), because it wanted to see the results of the Arab Spring "coming to fruition".

A Commission spokesperson said the EU had offered to send an observation mission, but the Egyptian authorities have preferred not to accept international help for their election process.

Tantawi, 76, defence minister under Mubarak for two decades, appeared hesitant, speaking in field uniform, as he told the 80 million Egyptians his army did not want power:

"The army is ready to go back to barracks immediately if the people wish that through a popular referendum, if need be."

Many of the protestors saw the suggestion of a referendum, vague in its content, as a ploy to split the nation.

A military source said Tantawi's referendum offer would come into play "if the people reject the field marshal's speech," but did not explain how the popular mood would be assessed.

Tantawi may calculate that most Egyptians, unsettled by dizzying change, do not share the young protestors' appetite for breaking from the army's familiar embrace just yet.

Positions: 

Middle East expert Dr. David Bukay of Haifa University said on Tuesday that he is concerned over the possibility that the extremist Muslim Brotherhood will take power in Egypt, the Israeli website Arutz Sheva wrote.

Bukay said he hopes that the elections in Egypt, scheduled for 28 November, will be delayed and that the ruling military will calm down the riots.

“Israel is always better off with a military regime, be it in Egypt or in Syria, than the rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood,” Bukay said. “If the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power, the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt will end.”

He suggested that the current riots in Egypt are none other than a provocation by the military regime itself so that it would have an excuse “to postpone the elections for fear of anarchy.”

Egypt's highest Islamic official Grand Mufti Ali Gomaa denied on Tuesday that minority Christians faced sectarian discrimination and said Islamists would win no more than 20% of votes in next week's election.

Gomaa said Egypt had done its best to abolish discrimination against Copts, who make up 10% of Egypt's roughly 80 million population, but a small minority of radical salafist Islamists were causing trouble.

He added that no more than 250,000 Egyptians were salafists, or radical Islamists, and they and the non-violent Islamist Muslim Brotherhood would win less than one-fifth of the vote.

"In the elections, the Islamists will not get more than 20 percent," Gomaa said through an interpreter. "I'm sure the majority of Egyptians are with the moderate voice of Islam."

EurActiv.com with Reuters
Background: 

Egyptians start voting in a parliamentary election on 28 November, the first such vote since President Hosni Mubarak was ousted by a popular uprising, although the upcoming poll has been overshadowed by clashes between police and protestors.

Even after parliament is elected, presidential powers will stay with the ruling military council until a vote for the presidency.

Following are key dates and details on voting for the staggered lower and upper house votes:

  • 28 November - The first stage of the parliamentary election kicks off in nine provinces including Cairo, Port Said, Alexandria, and Assiyut in the south. Run-off votes where no candidate wins a clear a majority will be held on 5 December.
  • 14 December - The second round of election starts in nine other provinces, including Beni Suef, Ismailia, Suez and Sohag. The run-off vote will be held on 21 December.
  • 3 January - The third and final stage of the vote for the lower house takes place in the last nine governorates left. The run-off vote will be held on 10 January.
  • 29 January - The start of the first stage of the vote for the upper house in the same provinces as the first round of the vote for the lower house. The run-off vote will on 5 February
  • 14 February - The second-stage of the upper house vote. The run-off vote will be held on 21 February.
  • 4 March - The third and final stage of the vote for the upper house. The run-off vote will be on 11 March.

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