The top issues are jobs and taxes in Germany's 18 September elections, where the country's 62 million eligible voters will elect members of parliament and the controlling party then selects the chancellor. Turnout is projected at around 80%.
Overall, the pre-election public opinion polls have shown that Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats tend to be trusted by the public to have a better grasp on foreign policy issues and are generally perceived to be more committed to social justice. At its core, the SPD's message is that the key reforms are in place and have more or less been implemented, and now is the time for the country to realise the benefits under another Social Democrat-led government.
At the same time, the conservatives, led by CDU leader Angela Merkel, are generally believed by the electorate to offer a more solid programme aimed at turning Germany's economy around. They advocate faster progress on the labour market, welfare and tax changes. The conservatives promise more radical reforms as a way out of the "failed" efforts of the Schröder cabinet.
In the polls, Merkel's conservatives continue to lead Schröder's Social Democrats, but the margin has shrunk in recent days. During the past week alone, Schröder has closed Merkel's lead from 17% to 6%. It therefore appears increasingly likely that the CDU will not be able to form a centre-right coalition with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) but will instead be forced to conclude a "grand coalition" with the SPD. In this scenario Merkel would still become the country's first female chancellor. However, as the New York Times commented, "given the aura of political invincibility that has enveloped Mrs Merkel since a weakened Mr Schröder called for elections in May, that would be seen almost as a defeat".
Germany had its last 'grand coalition' in the 1960s. Led by Christian Democrat Chancellor Kurt-Georg Kiesinger, it governed the country between 1966 and 1969. It was a 'coalition of the willing' in that the participants were all ready to work together.
As for Schröder, he has explicitly ruled out participating in a 'grand coalition' government that would most likely be led by Merkel (who, in turn, has also been dismissive of the 'grand coalition' scenario).
Alongside the CDU-SPD coalition scenario, the other possible groupings include the so-called 'traffic light' (Red-Yellow-Green) coalition of the SPD, the FDP and the Greens, or a Red-Red-Green coalition that would involve the SPD, the new Left Party and the Greens. All interested parties have rejected all these scenarios. A Red-Green coalition with backing from the Left Party is another scenario that has not been explicitely ruled out.
However, the election results are likely to leave no choice but a 'grand coalition' , despite the fact that such a marriage of convenience may not be in Germany's best interests, as big clashes on key issues would predictably hamper decision-making. A hung parliament is looking increasingly likely, which in turn might lead to new elections as early as next year.
A poll published by the Allensbach Institute on 14 September gave the CDU-FDP a combined support of 48.7%, the SDP and the Greens a combined 40.1% and the Left Party 8.5%. Another poll by Emnid gave the CDU-FDP 48.5%, the SPD and the Greens 40.5% and the Left Party 8%. The threshold for a majority in parliament needed to elect a government is understood to be around 48.5%.
