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Scottish referendum to clash with European elections

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Published 16 October 2012

Scotland and the UK signed an agreement yesterday (15 October) opening the way for a referendum on independence in the autumn 2014, after the European elections. But if Scots vote for independence, they would be out of the EU, at least until they renegotiate membership.

Signed in Edinburgh by Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond and UK Prime Minister David Cameron, the deal will allow Scotland to decide in a 2014 referendum whether it should become an independent country or stay within the United Kingdom.

Nationalists have timed the vote to coincide with the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn (24 June 1314), when Scottish forces led by King Robert the Bruce defeated English invaders. European elections are due to be held between 5 and 8 June 2014, unless the Council unanimously decides to change the dates.

Cameron opposes Scotland's push, arguing that Britain is stronger together. But London agrees it is up to Scotland to decide its future for itself in a vote.

Now that the starting gun has been fired, one of the most important questions is whether an independent Scotland would have to renegotiate EU membership.

Asked to comment, European Commission spokesperson Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen said there was no point of speculating on the EU side until the UK government asks the question.

She said: “It’s indeed not the role of the Commission to express a position on questions of internal organisation relating to the constitutional arrangements in the member states.

“What I can add, however, is that, concerning certain scenarios such as the separation of one part of a member state or the creation of a new state, these would not be neutral as regarding the EU treaties. The commission would express an opinion on the legal consequences under EU law on request from a member state detailing the precise scenario.”

Ahrenkilde Hansen also confirmed that no requests had been received from two other EU regions looking to become independent - Catalonia in Spain and Flanders in Belgium.

“We don’t have a scenario described by a member state on the table at the moment,” she said.

Commission President José Manuel Barroso recently said that any country winning independence from a current EU member state would have to renegotiate its membership.

Intrigue over wording

No official details of the agreement between Salmond and Cameron were immediately released, although the broad outlines have been widely trailed.

Salmond is expected to have accepted London's demand that there should be only one straightforward "in or out" question on whether voters want to be part of the United Kingdom.

He had earlier campaigned for a second question on whether Scotland should be given more powers in the so-called "devo max" form of enhanced devolution that stops short of independence.

London is thought to have agreed to allow Salmond to lower the voting age to 16 from Britain's countrywide 18 - a coup for Salmond, who believes that young people are more likely to vote in favour of independence.

London argues that an independent Scotland - home to about five million people - would struggle to make ends meet as the bulk of is current funding comes from a 30-billion-pound (€37 billion) grant from the UK government.

But one of the most contentious issues at stake is the ownership of an estimated 20 billion barrels of recoverable oil and gas reserves beneath the UK part of the North Sea.

Britain is also worried about the future of its nuclear submarine fleet based in Scotland as Salmond says there would be no place for nuclear arms on Scotland's soil after independence. Moving the fleet elsewhere would be costly and time-consuming.

Many Scots are unconvinced about independence. Opinion polls show only between 30% and 40% of them are in favour - a range that has changed little as negotiations have intensified.

Next steps: 
  • 5-8 June 2014: European elections (dates to be confirmed)
  • 24 June 2014: 600 years from the Battle of Bannockburn, referendum set to coincide with the anniversary
  • Autumn 2014: Scottish referendum
Jennifer McKiernan, journalist at the Aberdeen Evening Express and a Robert Bosch Stiftung-EurActiv Journalism Fellow

COMMENTS

  • Does the author of this nonsense seriously imagine that the Bannockburn anniversary was the only, or even the most important, consideration in setting the date of the referendum? Are they genuinely incapable of thinking of any other reasons why that date might have been chosen?

    If the EU elections are in June then there is no clash with a referendum four or five months later. Scotland's constitutional status will not change until after the referendum. Even then there is no logical reason to suppose Scotland will not remain a member of the EU. And it is absolutely certain that the EU elections cannot pre-empt the outcome of the referendum.

    By :
    Peter A Bell
    - Posted on :
    16/10/2012
  • So many factual errors in this article I'm not even going to start answering them, but only to ask one question.

    If Scotland does decide to become independent, that ends the status of the United Kingdom as a state. Whatever awaits Scotland with regard to its relationship with Europe, exactly the same situation exists with the remainder of the United Kingdom. If Scotland is not accepted as a member without reapplying, then neither will the remainder of the United Kingdom as was.

    With regard to the opinion polls - all of them so far were based on the possibility of a third option of greatly increased powers, (which incidentally proved to be the most popular choice) and virtually nobody supported the status quo. Now that the option is restricted to change (independence) or no change (status quo) it will be very interesting to see how the polls move.

    By :
    BillDunblane
    - Posted on :
    16/10/2012
  • I haver only ever heard Bannockburn mentioned by the Unionists. The SNP don't even send representation to the event celebrating it.

    And by the way - regarding the EU - if indeed Scotland was regarded as a new state that needed to apply for membership, exactly the same would apply to what remains of what was the UK.

    By :
    Siôn Eurfyl Jones
    - Posted on :
    16/10/2012
  • This article is so full of inaccuracies I'm tempted to think it deliberate...

    - If the timing of the referendum were planned to coincide with the anniversary of Bannockburn then it would be in June 2014 which patently it is not...

    - Alex Salmond never campaigned for a second question, the SNP's position was always for a straight Yes/No question (their raison d'etre is Scottish independence!) and the DevoMaxPlusHomeRule plateful of fudge was provided by various Unionist groupings...

    - There is no polling evidence supporting the idea that 16-17 year-olds are more likely to vote Yes. Lowering the franchise to 16 however has long been SNP policy...

    - Citing the 'bulk of its funding' coming fom a 'grant' while neglecting the revenue raised which makes up that central fund creates an unbalanced picture of a dependent Scottish economy. Scotland is a net contributor to the UK economy, raising 9.4% of UK income with 8.4% of the population...

    - Ownership of North Sea gas and oil reserves is not a contentious issue. There are internationally-agreed conventions on national controls over seabed, they exist today as 'UK waters' and would be easily delineated as 'Scottish waters' and 'rUK waters' by convention following Scotland's independence...

    - The costs of removing nuclear weapons from Scottish soil is not large and would be seen as a price worth paying by Scots. The costs of retaining by continued harbouring and hosting of these weapons on rUK soil is a matter for and a decision for the rUK government. The removal of these weapons from Scottish soil is non-negotiable...

    - Polls have consistently shown a majority of Scots wish significantly more autonomy and self-government than provided by the current devolution settlement. They have now been denied any middle position and will be asked to decide between independence and a status quo with any hopes of further devolution in the hands of a Conservative government in London...

    I will be voting Yes in 2014 for a better Scottish future.

    By :
    Sophia Pangloss
    - Posted on :
    16/10/2012
  • what's rUK (remainder UK? how can what's left be a remainder) surely FUK (former UK) or maybe EAWIN (ee awe in: England and Wales and Northern Ireland) although my guess is that the IN bit will see which way the wind is blowing and be out leaving poor old eaw all on its own.

    By :
    Mike Parr
    - Posted on :
    17/10/2012
  • to Mike Parr - The only question currently being asked is whether or not Scotland leaves the UK. What happens to the remaining constituent parts of the UK is up to each constituent part, it's called self-determination. Therefore I believe rUK (the rest of the UK) is the most appropriate term. I don't believe it would remain as EAWANI for very long...

    By :
    Sophia Pangloss
    - Posted on :
    17/10/2012
  • As European i must admitt that this is simply crazy for independency to leave the United Kindom ???
    Is there a sense for leaving or splitting the UK ???

    By :
    an european
    - Posted on :
    24/10/2012
  • an european

    The case for Scotland restoring its rightful constitutional status as an independent nation has been made long ago and continues to be argued on a daily basis. If you wish to know more I suggest you start with the websites of the Scottish National Party and Yes Scotland.

    Be aware that dismissing others as "crazy" while admitting that you are totally ignorant of the facts does little for your own credibility.

    By :
    Peter A Bell
    - Posted on :
    24/10/2012
Alex Salmond and David Cameron in Edinburgh
Background: 

Scotland has been a nation within the United Kingdom since the UK was founded in 1707. The current Scottish Parliament was founded in 1999 as part of the process of devolution within the UK, which created regional assemblies in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, to give the regions greater autonomy. The Scottish Parliament has control over some parts of policy, such as education and health, and can create its own laws on these issues. 

The Scottish National Party (SNP), which leads the devolved government, is campaigning for Scottish independence. The SNP claims that Scotland needs a stronger voice in Europe and beyond to properly represent its social, political and economic interests. 

Scottish ministers complain that issues important to them are often sidelined by the UK government based in London, and representation for Scotland is lost or diluted when the interests of the UK are represented internationally. 

The Scottish government has put forward several issues on which it believes the interests of their nation would be better served as an independent state within the EU, including diplomatic relations, energy policy, fisheries and environmental policy. 

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