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Spain goes to snap poll

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Published 29 July 2011, updated 01 August 2011

Spain's leftist government called today (29 July) a snap general election for November, four months earlier than initially scheduled, looking to capitalise on a slight upturn in opinion poll ratings.

"I believe the moment has arrived to announce a general election... which will be held on November 20," Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero told a news conference on Friday.

Political commentators had widely speculated that the Socialists could take advantage of improved poll ratings and an uptick in summer employment data to call an early election.

The conservative opposition under Mariano Rajoy is widely expected to win the vote, but analysts say the only question is by what margin.

Spanish debt has been in the firing line in financial markets on the heels of a review for a possible downgrade from credit rating agency Moody's, which cited weak growth and out of control regional spending as key challenges for the euro zone's fourth largest economy.

However, economists are doubtful that an election alone, even if it creates a fairly stable new government, would calm down markets (see 'Positions').

Unpopular Zapatero has been considered a weak leader since he decided not to run again earlier this year, and the Socialists badly lost a May regional election.

Former Interior Minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba was subsequently named the Socialist candidate.

A survey by the Centre of Sociological Investigations conducted July 4 to 11 gave the Socialists, lead by Rubalcaba, an approval rating of 36% compared to the People's Party's 43.1%.

The poll results showed the Socialists had narrowed the PP's lead by 3 percentage points from the previous poll in April and since Rubalcaba announced he would run for prime minister.

According to the poll, 81.5% of those surveyed had little or no confidence in Zapatero.

EurActiv with Reuters

Positions: 

David Lea, Western Europe analyst, Control Risks Consultancy in London:

"It's no great surprise. It had become increasingly obvious that the government would struggle to get the 2012 budget through and now it doesn't have to. The opposition People's Party is ahead in the polls and might even get an overall majority, although there is a suggestion they may have peaked. They've been trying to be all things to all men, but they should at least be able to get a budget through.

"That would leave us with virtually no left-wing governments in Europe. It's still not clear what will happen in Cyprus, we still have Greece and then of course there is Norway - but that of course is an outlier in every way."

David Bach, Economist at IE Business School:

"I'm not convinced an election alone, even if it creates a fairly stable new government, will calm down markets. What we've seen in the last 18 months is that there are events that have a short-term impact on the markets."

Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist, Berenberg in London:

"[There is] additional nervousness now. Extra short-term risk. (But) it is likely we will get a government with a better mandate to do what Spain really needs, that has more thoughtful labor market reforms."

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
Background: 

Spain's struggle to deal with its debt burden and avoid a Greek-style bailout has been central to concerns about a deepening of the euro zone's debt crisis.

Rating agency Moody's put Spain on review for a possible downgrade today (29 July), adding to concerns that a Greek rescue package has done little to halt the spread of Europe's debt crisis.

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