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BROWSE ALL SECTIONS

Inconclusive UK elections leave options open

Published 07 May 2010 - Updated 22 December 2011
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By Friday afternoon (7 May) with counting almost complete, Britain's opposition Conservatives had become the largest party in parliament after the closest election in three decades. But the UK now has a "hung parliament" without a clear majority, and by the close of business it was still uncertain who would eventually run the country.

With 646 of 650 seats decided by late afternoon on Friday, the centre-right Conservatives had 304 seats to the ruling Labour party's 258.

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Conservative leader David Cameron said it was clear the ruling Labour party "had lost its mandate to govern".

However, Labour politicians stressed Britain's constitution gave current Prime Minister Gordon Brown the right to try to form a government first. He would struggle to do so with the third-placed Liberal Democrats, however, since their combined forecast seats would still be short of a majority in parliament.

The first inconclusive election since 1974 and uncertainty about who will form the next government is likely to trouble already febrile financial markets.

Focus has now switched to which parties enter into talks with one other. They will be assisted by civil servants who have prepared briefing documents outlining key elements of party proposals and their costs.

Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has said the onus is now on David Cameron to demonstate he is capable of forming a government that can rule "in the national interest".

A sense of confusion was heightened by reports that hundreds of voters had been turned away from crowded polling stations across the country when voting ended at 22:00 local time.

Results from the 650 seats rolled in against a backdrop of global market turmoil following a huge sell-off on Wall Street and the fall-out from the Greek debt crisis.

The pound slumped against the dollar, while equity futures tumbled and gilt futures soared, with markets fretting over the uncertainty but more concerned by turmoil on other exchanges.

Minority government

An exit poll, which surveyed around 20,000 people out of around 45 million Britons eligible to vote on Thursday, suggested the centre-right Conservatives were likely to win 305 seats and Labour 255 seats in the lower House of Commons, both short of the 326 needed for a majority.

It put the Liberal Democrats, who had been expected to perform strongly, on 61 seats - surprisingly down two on their current number in parliament.

"I still think the exit poll is a good guide, but we shall have to wait [...] before making a judgment," said Andrew Hawkins, chairman of polling firm ComRes.

The results so far indicate the exit poll seems reasonably accurate.

Most seats showed a swing in support to Conservatives but, if repeated nationally, not all of sufficient size to give the party an overall majority.

Notable losses for Labour included former cabinet ministers Charles Clarke and Jacqui Smith, while Northern Ireland's first minister, Peter Robinson, of the Democratic Unionist Party, was the highest profile casualty of the night. Gainers included the Greens, who won their first ever parliamentary seat.

Britain's constitution dictates that Labour's Brown gets the first chance to form a government, but analysts said the most likely scenario was a Conservative minority government.

"[It will lead to] almost certainly a minority government led by Cameron. Cameron is going to try and get policy programmes into place, demonstrate his competence and then call a second election this autumn or next spring," said Mark Wickham-Jones, professor of political science at Bristol University.

Cameron said he would be guided by national interest in decisions made over the coming hours. However, he also said: "I believe it is already clear that the Labour government has lost its mandate to govern our country."

The next government will have to deal with a record budget deficit running in excess of 11% of national output, and demands for political reform following a parliamentary expenses scandal last year which left Britons disgusted with lawmakers.

Markets fear a stalemate could lead to political paralysis, hampering efforts to tackle the nation's spiralling debt and secure recovery from the worst recession since World War Two.

Independent think-tanks have accused all the parties of failing to be open with voters about the scale of cuts that will be needed to restore public finances, meaning any government could face a plunge in popularity early on once cuts begin.

"This might be the election you want to lose and win the next one," said Wayne Anderson, 42, who works at a brokerage in London. "It could be a poisoned chalice with a small majority or minority. It would be more difficult to make decisions in a hung parliament."

A series of three US-style leaders' television debates, a first for UK politics, energised campaigning and boosted turnout.

However, the higher turnout caused problems in some constituencies, with voters turned away from busy polling stations because election officials were unable to cope with a paperwork prompted by a late surge.

Britain's electoral watchdog said it had launched an investigation, raising the possibility of legal challenges to some results.

(EurActiv with Reuters.)

Positions: 

The Guardian quoted Conservative leader David Cameron as saying on election night:

"I believe it's already clear that the Labour government has lost its mandate to govern our country. The Conservative party is on target to win more seats at this election than we have done at any election in perhaps as long as 80 years. What's clear from these results is that the country, our country, wants change. That change is going to require new leadership and we will stand ready to do all we can to help bring that leadership."

At the same time, Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown openly mulled the prospect of trying to secure a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, built around electoral reform.

He said: "My duty to the country coming out of this election is to play my part in Britain having a strong, stable and principled government able to lead Britain into sustained economic recovery and able to implement our commitments to far-reaching reform upon which there is a growing consensus in our country."

The Guardian writes that the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg was reportedly depressed by the result, and is wary of forming a "coalition of the defeated" that might be seen as ignoring the public mood.

Speaking after the exit poll results were declared but before any actual results had come in, UK Business Secretary Peter Mandelson signaled Labour would still try and form a government as part of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

"It's not the party which has the largest number of seats that has first go, it's the sitting government," Mandelson told the BBC. "I have no problem in principle with trying to supply this country with a strong and stable government."

George Osborne, Conservative treasury spokesman, said it is unthinkable that Labour could form a government if they fall far behind the Conservatives in terms of number of seats.

"I think they need to get real. They have been rejected by the British people and Britain needs a change of government," he told the BBC.

Background: 

The UK held a general election on 6 May, which was expected to bring down the curtain on 13 years of rule by the Labour Party.

Opinion polls pointed to a hung parliament where no single party has a clear majority, the first since 1974. Post-World War Two politics has been dominated almost without interruption by left-leaning Labour and the right-leaning Conservatives.

Incumbent Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who succeeded Tony Blair in 2007, began the campaign as the underdog. With Brown's popularity ratings having been low for much of his tenure, observers had long predicted an easy win for David Cameron's Conservative Party.

With the Liberal Democrats having conducted an impressive campaign - with leader Nick Clegg depicting himself as a fresh-faced honest alternative to the status quo (EurActiv 16/04/10) - the Conservatives were no longer seen as certain to secure a clear majority.

EurActiv's Gary Finnegan followed developments during election day on his blog on Blogactiv.

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