Existing climate actions 'not good enough', EU warned[fr][de] 

The world is in even "more dire straits" than the worst predictions set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC), Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Environment Institute, told a climate change conference in Brussels yesterday (11 November).

Oceans, forest and other natural systems are losing their ability to absorb CO2, according to Rockström, who warned that "we cannot exclude disastrous tipping points even today". 

Rockström's comments were seconded by Lord Nicholas Stern, a professor at the London School of Economics and author of the pivotal 2006 Stern Report, which quantified the costs of inaction on climate change in terms of GDP losses (EurActiv 31/10/06).

Stern admitted during the conference that "we underestimated the cost of inaction because emissions are growing faster than we thought and the planet is deteriorating faster". 

The speakers at the conference agreed that the EU, which has set a target of 20% CO2 reduction by 2020, cannot afford to backtrack on its commitments. There are concerns that some of the bloc's new member states, along with Italy, could block a deal on the EU's climate and energy 'package' over concerns that the measures will prove too costly for their domestic industries.

But even if a deal can be reached and EU countries, as well as other developed states, agree to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions drastically, it is widely recognised that the bulk of the burden for future GHG emissions reductions rests on the shoulders of rapidly developing states like China and India, which rely heavily on coal for power generation.

China says it is keen to reduce its own emissions and to contribute to a global deal to tackle climate change, but Beijing's cooperation is conditional on financial and clean technology transfer from developed states. Calls for such transfers were reiterated during a 7-9 November conference in Beijing hosted by Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, who says rich countries should give up their "unsustainable lifestyles" and do more to help poor nations to adapt to the effects of climate change.

The global financial crisis and fears about a severe economic recession are casting doubts on how funds and clean technologies could be transferred to developing states on a massive scale. Taxes on global financial transactions and restrictions on tax havens could unlock the necessary money, Franz Josef Radermacher of Germany's Ulm University, told the conference. 

Stern and other conference participants, including former EU Agriculture Commissioner Franz Fischler, expect that a new US admistration under President-elect Barack Obama will make an "enormous difference" by providing the leadership necessary to clinch a global deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol. Some experts warn, however, that US support for a deal is not certain and depends on several factors, notably the cooperation of China (EurActiv 31/10/08).