UN climate conference eyes 25-40% emission cuts by 2020[de] 

Despite major divisions regarding the best way to tackle climate change, industrialised countries at the UN conference in Vienna agreed, on 31 August, that greenhouse-gas emissions should be reduced by 25 to 40% by 2020, based on 1990 levels. 

The 25-40% range "provides useful initial parameters for the overall level of ambition of further emissions reductions", delegates stated. 

The declaration fell short of calls by the European Union and developing nations for the range to be called a "guide" for future negotiations, notably due to resistance from Canada, Japan and Russia, which feared that such a term could be used to commit them to binding cuts in the future. 

Nevertheless, government delegations officially recognised the findings of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that emissions of greenhouse gases would "need to peak in the next 10 to 15 years and then be reduced to very low levels, well below half of levels in 2000 by mid-century", if the world is to avoid facing an increased number of droughts, floods and severe storms. 

The debate on the best way to tackle climate change however remained largely polarised between the EU, which has itself already committed to a binding 20% emissions reduction goal by 2020 and wants Kyoto's successor to set clear, binding targets, and the United States, which prefers a voluntary, technology-driven approach. 

Green groups further suspect the US of attempting to sidetrack Kyoto by organising a meeting on 27-28 September, which will bring together 15 countries, including the EU, Russia, China, India and Brazil, together representing 82% of the global economy and 90% of the world's greenhouse gases. 

Indeed, the meeting could see the EU isolated among the US and emerging economies that are unwilling to commit to any binding cuts that could imperil their economic growth. 

"This meeting has put the Bali conference in the starting blocks…It shows that Parties have the necessary level of ambition to move this work forward," said Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, nevertheless adding: "But more needs to be done by the global community." 

He pointed to the fact that some developing countries — including small island nations most vulnerable to climate change as polar ice caps melt and sea levels rise — were pressing industrialised nations for even deeper emissions cuts, out of a sense of urgency and a fear that "they won't have a country to represent" if climate change is not slowed. 

The head of the EU Commission delegation Artur Runge-Metzger was slightly less enthusiastic, as he told Reuters: "This is a small step…We wanted bigger steps. But I think the 25-40% will be viewed as a starting point, an anchor for further work." 

While emphasising that the US does not "believe that just making up numbers is a particularly useful exercise", US Department of State senior climate negotiator Harlan Watson said: "We will also come through with what we believe will be our contribution." 

Referring to the fact that the US will be hosting its own climate-change meeting at the end of September, he stressed that the aim was to "complement" the UN process because the countries attending will be the world's largest economies and biggest polluters "and if they can't agree, there's little hope of reaching an agreement" in the UN negotiations. 

But environmentalists are questioning the sincerity of President Bush's initiative, fearing that it could evolve into an alternative to the UN post-Kyoto process that would allow big polluting countries to evade more stringent reduction targets. 

"The question is, will the Washington meeting affirm that these major emitters are committed to keeping the climate safe, and agree to take on the kind of targets in reducing greenhouse gases that are necessary," said Hans Verolme, head of the World Wildlife Fund's Global Climate Change Program, adding: "If the intention is to set up a competing track of talks, I would not like to see that." 

On the whole though, WWF welcomed the target proposed at the Vienna conference, saying it was a "safe range for emission reductions". 

"The road to Bali is clear, though it's time to switch gears," said Red Constantino, climate change campaigner for Greenpeace, stressing that failing to cut emissions by at least 30% of 1990 levels by 2020 "would condemn millions to disease, water shortages and misery in the developing world".