UN warns about migration impact of climate change[fr][de] 

The usable agricultural land area could shrink by at least 1.5 million hectares, while an additional 10.8 million would feel the effect of a sea level rise of two metres, says the first multi-continent survey on the impact of environmental change on migration, to be presented today by UNU-EHS and CARE International, an NGO, in Bonn. 

Backed with empirical evidence gathered by numerous researchers, the report attempts to forge consensus on the importance of addressing climate change as a driver of migration.

It urges international climate negotiators gathered in the former German capital for the second round of climate talks to factor migration into adaptation strategies as climate change is set to force increasing numbers of people to leave their homes, particularly in the poorest parts of the world.

Estimates of the number of people displaced due to environmental change range from 25-50 million in 2010 to nearly 700 million in 2050. 

The largest impact will be on the least developed countries and island states, which also have the poorest resources to deal with the consequences of global warming, the report states.

The report calls for the climate treaty to be agreed in December within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to set "binding commitments for historic emitters" to help vulnerable communities become more climate-resilient. This money should come on top of any existing commitments to development assistance, it said.

The authors urge substantial investment in on-site adaptation measures, such as water-saving irrigation systems and disaster management. They point out that poorer people, in particular, are at substantial risk of fleeing to destinations where the environmental conditions are equally precarious. 

The report cautions that government involvement may not always leave people better off, as resettlement can come at a high cost, with lost livelihoods and cultural degradation. It therefore points to the importance of involving the local population in adaptation planning.

The authors also stress that climate change should be factored into existing international and national frameworks on displacement and migration. The phenomenon has created a new group of people who do not fit into current distinctions of voluntary and forced migration, and might therefore not receive the protection they need.