US official: We have a backup plan if climate bill fails [fr]

Published: 25 September 2009

President Barack Obama is drawing up a 'Plan B' to regulate greenhouse gases if the US Senate fails to pass legislation needed to mandate the new administration to negotiate an international climate treaty at crunch talks in December, a senior official said yesterday (24 September).

Background

The global community is currently engaged in negotiations to agree a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

The first United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) talks in Bonn (29 March–8 April) launched negotiations for a draft agreement in view of the final conference in Copenhagen later this year (EurActiv 09/04/09).

The draft negotiating text, prepared ahead of June's second round of climate talks, revealed a divide between rich and poor countries. Developing nations are asking their industrialised counterparts to commit to sizeable CO2 reductions and to offer financial aid to help poor nations with their efforts. But developed countries have not made any firm commitments on funding, and only the EU has taken on a firm CO2 reduction target, which nevertheless fails to meet the developing world's demands (EurActiv 29/04/09).

In the meantime, the negotiating text has ballooned to hundreds of pages as all parties have reacted with amendments. Little progress was made at the June talks on financing for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to global warming (EurActiv 15/06/09), while an informal round in August barely even raised these issues (EurActiv 18/08/09).

At the sidelines of a G8 meeting in Italy on 9 July, the Major Economies Forum, comprising 17 countries that are accountable for 75% of global emissions, agreed for the first time to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius but failed to come up with targets (EurActiv 10/07/09).

In an attempt to break the deadlock, the European Commission presented on 10 September a blueprint for international climate funding (EurActiv 11/09/09). It suggested that the EU's share of climate mitigation and adaptation aid for developing countries could be in the range of 2-15 billion euros a year.

Stopping in Brussels on a European speaking tour, Dennis Leaf, a senior adviser at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), sought to ease European fears that the US will not be ready to sign up to a successor to the Kyoto Protocol if the Senate does not pass domestic climate legislation, including a cap-and-trade scheme, ahead of Copenhagen.

The climate bill got through the House of Representatives in June, but only by a very narrow margin. Indeed, a repeat of the majority achieved in the lower chamber would not see the law through the Senate, where 60 out of 100 votes are required for approval.

"The president wants comprehensive legislation, but at the same time there's a back-up plan," Leaf said.

The US official noted that overarching legislation is the best way to reduce emissions considering the wide range of interests involved, from agriculture to energy and the environment. But he added that as a plan B, the president is setting up a regulatory system that will allow the US to regulate greenhouse gases under the existing Clean Air Act.

The US Supreme Court ruled in 2007 that greenhouse gases are air pollutants and should therefore be covered by the Clean Air Act. It invited the EPA to investigate whether these endanger public health or welfare.

At the time, the EPA decided to leave the final decision to the next administration, as then-President George W. Bush had declared that CO2 is not an air pollutant, Leaf said. But the prospects for successfully regulating global warming gases under existing legislation improved significantly when Obama took office, he added.

Consequently, the EPA proposed in April to classify six key greenhouse gases, including CO2 and methane, as a threat to public health and welfare. If the final EPA decision, which will possibly be taken before the end of the year, confirms the proposal, this would open the door for the agency to set binding limits on these gases.

If legislation is not passed in the Senate, then the public has the right to petition the EPA to regulate things like electric power plants and industrial sources, Leaf pointed out.

The official argued that this option could be used as leverage over the Senate to push the members into passing the climate bill. Effectively, it would open a new channel for different interest groups to turn to the EPA to demand measures on climate protection.

"If for some reason we said 'no', they could then take us to court," he said. "But I suspect under this administration we would not say 'no'."

Filling the gaps after Copenhagen

Europeans have steadily grown disillusioned with the new US administration, as Obama, hailed as the greenest American leader yet, has not signed up to emission cuts on a European scale.

The EU has made a binding commitment to reducing its CO2 emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by 2020, and is willing to increase this to 30% should other industrialised countries follow suit. But the draft US climate bill only promises a return to 1990 levels.

Moreover, differences have been reported regarding the institutional arrangements of the new treaty (EurActiv 17/09/09). While Europe wants to retain the architecture set up under the Kyoto Protocol, the Obama administration has told European colleagues that it intends to replace the protocol's structures with its own.

Leaf argued that the US found that the Kyoto Protocol's enforcement mechanisms were blatantly lacking. 

"I think when we come in, there'll be much more emphasis on enforcement and repercussions if you don't meet your target," he said. 

"We will push for many things that the Japanese and the Europeans probably won't like," the official said. Some of these things would come in Copenhagen and the rest could be filled in afterwards, he concluded.

Next Steps

  • 24-25 Sept. 2009: G20 summit in Pittsburgh. 
  • 28 Sept.-9 Oct.: UN climate negotiations in Bangkok.
  • 29-30 Oct.: European summit.
  • 2-6 Nov.: UN climate negotiations in Barcelona.
  • 7-18 Dec.: UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen.