Slovakia set for tight presidential run-off[fr][de] 

As expected, left-leaning incumbent Gašparovič emerged victorious from Saturday's first round, taking 46.7% of the vote. Sociologist Iveta Radičová, the joint candidate of opposition parties SDKÚ, SMK and KDH (all members of the centre-right European People's Party) received 38%. 

A total of seven candidates were vying for the position of Slovak president, which is largely ceremonial. The post is directly elected and the victor must attract more over 50% of the vote to avoid a second round. Lawyers differ, however, as to whether the required total is 50% of the ballots submitted or 50% of those eligible to vote. Since neither of these benchmarks were met at the weekend, a second round will be required. 

Gašparovič, of the Movement for Democracy (HZD), has the explicit support of Prime Minister Robert Fico's Social Democrats (SMER) and enjoys the backing of the Slovak Nationalist Party (SNS) led by Jan Slota. Both leaders appeared together with Gašparovič on his campaign billboards, while SMER's support is believed to have helped the president win both Saturday's ballot and the 2004 presidential election. 

HZDS (People's Party – Movement for a Democratic Slovakia), a coalition partner in Fico's government and the party which Gašparovič left in 2002 after a clash with leader Vladimír Mečiar, openly criticised the president and put forward its own candidate, university professor Milan Melník. 

President Gašparovič, whose election slogan is "I think nationally and feel socially," is widely considered to have a good chance of being re-elected in April’s run-off. Nevertheless, the gap between him and his challenger Radičová was not as large as polls had predicted. Indeed, opinion polls conducted in the run-up to the vote suggested that there would be a gap of 15-20 percentage points between the two frontrunners after the first round. 

Radičová's strong showing of 38%, just 8.7 points behind Gašparovič, suggests that there is a realistic chance of her becoming the first female president in Slovakia's history in April's run-off. Key to the outcome will be the support of those who voted for conservative František Mikloško and former journalist and Free Forum candidate Zuzana Martináková in the first round. Both gained around 5% of the vote. 

After the announcement of Saturday's result, Mikloško announced he would not support either of the frontrunners. His main objection to Radičová is her stance on abortion, while he dislikes Gašparovič's communist past and his former alliance with ex-premier Vladimír Mečiar in the 1990s. Martinaková has not yet revealed who she and her party will support. 

Political scientists are warning that the support of those who opted for unsuccessful candidates in the first round will not be enough. To beat the incumbent, Radičová will also need to attract voters who did not take part in the first round, while observers also suspect that some Gašparovič supporters did not vote at the weekend either. 

The overall turnout in the first round was just 43.63%.