Spanish elections: Partido Popular tipped for narrow win
Polls point to a narrow win for the incumbent right-leaning Partido Popular, led by Jose Maria Aznar's successor Mariano Rajoy. A Socialist win at the 14 March elections may make it easier to reach a compromise on the EU Constitution.
Background
In Spain's last general election, on 12 March 2000, the Partido Popular (PP) swept to victory, securing a total of 183 seats in the Chamber of Deputies - an absolute majority.
Prime minister Jose Maria Aznar stepped down as leader of the PP in September 2003 nearly eight years after taking office for the first time. His departure paved the way for former government spokesperson Mariano Rajoy to lead the party into the 2004 elections. Rajoy (
), who was chosen ahead of Economy Minister Rodrigo Rato, is known to be close to Aznar and has even been portrayed as a puppet of the former party leader. The 48-year-old former interior minister Rajoy, who graduated in law, comes with a reputation as a good conciliator.
Spanish polls widely predict a narrow win for the PP but
there is considerable uncertainty as to whether or not the
party will gain an absolute majority. To do so, it would
need to win 176 out of the 350 seats up for grabs.
Some hope for the main opposition
Socialists (PSOE) lies in the fact that their leader, Jose
Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, appears to be more popular than
the PP's leader. Zapatero's call for a face-to-face debate
with the Rajoy is therefore understandable but has so far
fallen on deaf ears.
Should the Socialists win the election,
there is a suggestion that they would be more amenable in
contributing to a compromise on the European Constitution.
Making it clear that he was not speaking as a member of the
Socialist Party, Spanish MEP Enrique Barón Crespo
said: "The Socialists in Spain would deal with the
negotiations on the future European Constitution in a more
constructive way than the incumbent PP Government. In
contrast to the uncompromising attitude of President Jose
Maria Aznar who has been blocking any agreement, a
government led by PSOE leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero
will seek a fair deal that is good for Spanish interests
and that is also a balanced compromise for the other
countries and the EU in general."
Talks on the Constitution collapsed in
December 2003 due to Spain and Poland's unwillingness to
give up the excessive (by comparision with their
populations) voting rights that they gained under the Nice
Treaty. According to the Financial Times, the present
Spanish government has rejected a proposal by the Irish
presidency that decisions be made by 55 per cent of EU
Member States representing 55 per cent of the population.
The Irish initiative is an adaptation of the current
formula, as drafted by the Convention, whereby decisions
would be made by 50 per cent of EU Member States
representing 60 per cent of the population.
On a separate issue, Spain, up until now
a major beneficiary of the EU's structural funds, will have
to give up some of these monies when it comes to the next
financial perspective 2007-13.
As regards Sunday's elections, in the
light of the Spanish people's overwhelming opposition to
the US-led war on Iraq, Aznar's support for the war is
viewed as a potential advantage for the socialist PSOE
party. Another black spot for the PP is its management of
the Prestige oil spill, in November 2002, which turned into
a major environmental disaster.
Other key issues in the election are the
calls by Spain's 17 autonomous regions for more powers and
the debate about illegal and legal immigration. A
controversy over a secret meeting between the head advisor
of the Generalitat (Catalan government), Josep Lluis Carod
Rovira and leaders of ETA has dogged the opposition
Socialists in the run-up to the 14 March elections. This
appears to be playing into the PP's hands because Rovira's
party, the Esquerra republicana de Catalunya, are in a
coalition government with the PSOE in Catalonia. The PP
clai m that these secret talks were in breach of the
anti-terrorist pact signed by both parties in 2000. /isp
align="justify"</> On the Thursday morning (11 March)
before the elections, the theme of terrorism reared its
ugly head again after several explosions at railway
stations in Madrid claimed at least 198 victims (see
). The attack has been described as Spain's 9/11 and the
BBC says it was "the deadliest in Europe since the
Lockerbie airliner bomb killed 270 in 1988". As a mark of
respect, Spain began three days of mourning on 12 March.
Doubt as to the identity of the perpetrators is clear from
a headline in El Mundo - 'ETA or Al Qaeda?'. Spanish
editors are calling for answers before Sunday's elections
on the basis that the identity of the culprits could
influence who people vote for.
Spain has a population of around 43
million with approximately 34 million registered
voters.
Next Steps
- The Spanish elections will be held on 14 March
- Discussions on how to make further progress on the European Constitution will be on the table during the Spring Council at the end of March