Report paints rosy picture for renewables[fr][de] 

Industry group EREC (European Renewable Energy Council) and Greenpeace presented their joint report "Energy (R)evolution: a sustainable world energy outlook" on 25 January 2007. The report's publication co-incides with the EU's first Sustainable Energy Week held from 29 January to 2 February.

The report's Energy [R]evolution scenario contrasts with the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2004 and its "business as usual scenario (extrapolated to 2050):

The main messages of the EREC-Greenpeace report are:

• Huge energy efficiency measures in the transport and housing sector can reduce global primary energy demand from the current 435.000 PJ/a (Peta Joules per year) to 422.000 PJ/a by 2050. The IEA World Outlook 2004 foresees 810.000 PJ/a [1 petajoule= 10³ TJ (Tera) = 106 GJ (Giga) = 277.8 GWh (Giga Watt hour)]
• half of this reduced primary energy demand can be covered by renewables;
• nuclear can be phased out completely and fossil fuels will only be used in the transport sector (the study is less optimistic than some governments on biofuels);
• by 2050, 70% of electricity will be produced from renewable resources; in the heat sector, the contribution of renewables will be 65%;
• this energy [r]evolution will lead to huge reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions: from 23,000 million tonnes in 2003 to 11,500 million tonnes in 2050; annual per-capita emissions will go down from 4.0 t to 1.3 t, and;
• contrary to the IEA reference scenario, energy costs can be stabilised under the EREC/Greenpeace scenario; in the IEA report these costs will quadruple.

In order to achieve this scenario, the report recommends the following political measures:

• Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear and internalise external costs;
• establish worldwide legally binding targets for renewables;
• provide stable returns for investors;
• guarantee priority access to the grid for renewable power generators, and;
• apply strict efficiency standards for all energy-consuming appliances, buildings and vehicles.

In the World Energy Outlook 2006, the International Energy Agency is much less optimistic about the future of renewables. In its "Alternative Policy Scenario" (which starts from the policies governments are currently implementing and developing), the share of renewables in global energy consumption will remain largely unchanged at 14% in 2030. By the same year, renewables will provide 26% of electricity production (currently 18%) according to the IEA. In another IEA scenario (BAPS - Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario - based on more ambitious governmental measures), the share of renewables in electricity production would rise to 32% by 2030.

The biggest challenges for renewables are still competitive pricing and intermittency (see Wikipedia's Intermittent power sources ). But renewables also pose some environmental and public-acceptance challenges, which are not addressed in the EREC/Greenpeace report. When asked by EurActiv, Greenpeace Sven Teske admitted that a chapter on the environmental limits of renewables had been foreseen but that for reasons of the length of the report, this section was not included.

For an overview of the limits of renewables, read the article  by Professor David Elliott from the Open University on the website "Before the wells run dry. Ireland's transition to renewable energy".