The EU-25's view of Turkey's membership bid[de] 

Having spent some four decades in the EU's waiting room, Turkey is set to hear the decision of the member states' leaders on the country's EU membership bid in the middle of December. While the basis on which the summit will make its decision is whether Ankara is ready to join, the question of whether the EU itself is ready to accept Turkey into the club is increasingly coming to the fore.

Whether in realistic terms the EU's 25 member states will be able to come to terms with the Union's largest expansion in its history remains anyone's guess. One of the biggest associated challenges is for the EU-25 to prepare public opinion, which in several countries is overwhelmingly hostile to Turkey's membership. 

If accession negotiations begin with Ankara in 2005, it is likely to take at least a decade before Turkey joins. Europe's leaders appear to hope that by then they will have convinced their electorates of the merits of Turkey joining.

In several EU member states, there appears to be a stark contrast between the opinion of the political establishment on Turkey’s membership of the Union and that of the broad public. 

For some, but clearly not all, current member states, Turkey represents a challenging but huge potential. For many of these states’ citizens, however, Turkey appears as a country too big, too poor, too distant and too Muslim. 

Although public opinion surveys on Turkey joining the EU are still few and far between across Europe, the general understanding appears to be that any possible referendum on the issue would most likely fail in practically all the major EU member states. 

The leaders of the member states will have to reach an unanimous decision in mid-December on the Turkish bid. That decision, however, will subsequently be subjected to approval at member state level, either through a referendum or by parliamentary vote.

While a few national governments and parliaments have already declared their respective positions on the Turkish bid, there are still many – especially smaller – member states which appear to be marking time, seemingly waiting for the major powers to spell out and align their stances first.

Britain has long been known to be one of the strongest supporters of Ankara’s bid, and Prime Minister Tony Blair is widely expected to press for a 'positive' outcome at the 16-17 December summit. For London, Turkey's admission would amount to a smart strategic move. The public in Britain remains divided on the issue.

Germany, the country in Europe with the largest community of Turkish immigrants, is supportive of Turkey’s cause at the top levels. However, recent polls put the citizens’ approval rate at around 30% only. 

France has been pulling closer and closer to promoting an alternative “third way” approach to Turkey in recent weeks, to a large extent as a result of the population’s overwhelming opposition to Turkish EU membership. France is the only member state where opposition to Turkey’s EU membership predominates at both levels – government and society. Public opinion polls show an average 70-80% rejection rate. 

The Netherlands has also been struggling to integrate its ever-growing Muslim communities, and the prospect of Turkey joining the “club” is apparently pushing the country’s leaders closer and closer to the French approach. The Dutch public is known to be predominantly against Turkey's membership. 

Austria’s leaders are also inclined to heed the message from the country’s citizens, who are strongly against Turkey joining the Union. A recent poll found that 76% of Austrians were against Turkey's accession. There also appears to be fierce public resistance from Luxembourg, Cyprus,   Denmark and Sweden.

The Greek government, apparently hoping to become able to resolve a number of outstanding issues with Ankara through a supportive vote (including the quarrels over the divided Cyprus), has manifested goodwill toward the Turkish bid – even in the teeth of the Greek public’s marked reservations. According to a recent poll conducted by the company MRB, some 45% of Greeks disagree with Turkey's EU prospects, with just 25% holding the opposite view.

Among the smaller member states, the Czech Republic is expected to vote in favour of Turkey’s bid at the European summit, despite the fact that the country’s ruling coalition remains divided on the issue. Accordingly, the Czech ‘yes’ is likely to be a careful ‘yes’. Meanwhile, there is not much public discussion about the issue in the country, and no representative public opinion polls have been conducted yet. 

In Slovakia, Hungary, the Baltic states and in many smaller member states the pattern appears to be rather similar to that in Prague. These governments are generally supportive of the Turkish bid, with dissenting voices coming either from the Christian Democrats or the opposition circles or from the radicals in the extremist corners. Several of the smaller member states are expected to side with a decision that would seek to attach a set of conditions to the projected negotiation process. In general, the public in these countries remains potentially divided but by and large ignorant of the issue and its implications. 

Public - and through that official - support for Turkey is far more marked in the Mediterranean states. At both official and public levels, Italy, Spain and   Portugal look at Turkey as a potential balance against the EU-10 countries that joined the Union in May 2004.

In Turkey, nearly 80% of the public looks favourably at the prospect of EU membership. According to a survey published in the German magazine Stern, the rejection rate among the Turks is only 18%. In the poll, nearly 50% of the respondents said that they would want to work in EU countries even if the country does not join the Union.