Transatlantic Center: Turkey is more important than ever 

The issue of Turkey's future EU accession touches upon a series of internal European concerns ranging from the costs to the cultural-religious dimension and the impact on the balance of power between member states, whereas the US perspective takes its starting point from a wider geo-strategic vision of the Middle East and Central Asia linked to both security and energy aspects.      

The rejections of the Constitutional Treaty by referenda in France and the Netherlands have been interpreted in some quarters as a vote by proxy on the past enlargement bringing in the EU-10 in 2004, and the planned enlargement with Turkey and the Balkans. To what extent that actually was the case is debatable.

Dr. Ron Asmus sees a renewed importance in anchoring Turkey to the EU: "Turkey is more important than ever before in a world where strategic intention is shifting to the East and South. You used to think of Turkey as being on the periphery of NATO and Europe, but it’s now in the centre as our strategic focus has shifted to the Middle East and to Eurasia. So the importance of Turkey succeeding in its own domestic modernisation and democratisation reforms, I would argue, is more important than at any time in the last fifty years."

This situation coincides with a strong reform-minded government in Turkey, which has made the issue of Turkish membership move on from theory to reality: "I would ask Europeans to understand that how you make this decision also affects American interests. So we have a legitimate interest as an outsider in how your debate unfolds and emerges, without wanting to interfere," says Asmus, and explains:

"If Europe were to reject Turkey and Turkey were to be destabilised as a result of that rejection, that directly affects American stability in Europe, in the region, maybe in the Middle East, and directly affects American security interests." 

"Europeans tend to see the downsides and it’s harder for Europeans to see the potential. So we tend to see Turkey as country with problems but an asset, and Europeans tend to see it as a debit, and that’s why the debate is so different." 

While the immediate political climate in the EU regarding Turkey may be uncertain, Asmus takes a longer and more optimistic view in which Turkey's own delivery on its reform efforts will be the most important factor: "The ultimate decisions on Turkey will not be made necessarily by this or the next French or German or European government, but one or two governments down the road – and the real question is, can the Turks keep up the momentum for reform?" 

Asmus does not believe that the Turkey issue played a big role in the French and Dutch referenda: "I think that if the French and Dutch economies were growing at three percent it would have been a very different debate. I think that these referenda were complicated, there were a lot of different factors that came together."

"The fact that Europe today is more peaceful, democratic and secure than at any time in one hundred years, and that enlargement is a direct part of that success – this is an unquestioned strategic success for the EU, and it just strikes outsiders as a bit odd at times that the success story has become part of the crisis," Asmus observes.

Read the full interview with Ron Asmus