'Positive' poll shows MEPs can increase turnout at EU elections[fr][de] 

The opinion survey, conducted across the EU by TNS in early May, found that 43% of respondents said they were certain to vote and a further 6% said they were very likely to do so. 

This represents a significant increase from the 34% who said they were certain to vote in a January Eurobarometer. Furthermore, the May survey found that 53% of Europeans were interested in the elections, whereas 46% were not. In January, 44% were interested and 53% were not. 

The results appear to buck the presumption in virtually all mainstream media that turnout will decline once again, leading to a marked increase in extremist and Eurosceptic candidates being elected. 

Piotr Maciej Kaczyński, a senior fellow at CEPS (Centre for European Policy Studies) welcomed the results of the poll, telling EurActiv he was "one of the few people in Brussels who has been predicting a higher turnout than five years ago". 

According to Kaczyński, there will be a "normalisation" of turnout in many of the new EU member states following the abysmal turnout of 2004, and furthermore, he believes there will be an increased turnout in both France and Germany. 

Moreover, contrary to the prevailing take by other political analysts, the CEPS fellow does not believe extremist parties will do particularly well at these elections. He concedes that far-right MEPs may have sufficient representation to form a new grouping in the Parliament, but argues that their impact will be negligible and they will "tear themselves apart from inside" as they did in 2007. 

A European Parliament representative, speaking to EurActiv, was reluctant to assume that the poll would automatically translate into increased turnout come election day. However, he acknowledged that the results were "positive" and argued that they offered European parties a real opportunity to convince voters in the last week of campaigning on the importance their euro vote. 

"It's now up to the European parties. Will their campaigns animate voters enough to get them out to the ballot, or will their efforts be neutral and fail to provoke interest?" 

The spokesperson also cautioned that no similar poll was conducted in May 2004 and thus the results of this survey have no precedent, making their significance more difficult to assess.