Socialists still bullish despite EU poll setbacks[fr][de] 

Party of European Socialists (PES) candidates from across Europe met in Toulouse for the official launch of their election campaign, months after they presented their electoral manifesto in late 2008 (EurActiv 03/12/08). 

The campaign highlight is a US-style "to-do list" for the first 100 days of the new Parliament, identifying seven steps to "fight the recession and mass unemployment, and ensure social security". 

The seven steps include a European Employment Pact, a new Women's Rights Charter and a Social Progress Pact – all part of the Socialists' strategy to persuade voters that they alone hold the tools to rebuild the battered European economy and financial system. 

Beyond these seven measures, the PES leadership, represented most prominently in Toulouse by French Socialist leader Martine Aubry and PES President Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, demanded the adoption of a five-year strategy for the EU (based on the PES manifesto, entitled 'People First: A New Direction for Europe'), which it will present to all nominees to the new European Commission after the elections. 

Heading for defeat? 

Such detailed policy prescriptions, however, may ultimately be in vain should the PES fail to overtake the EPP-ED as the Parliament's largest grouping. At the December launch of their manifesto, PES delegates told EurActiv that the financial crisis had given European Socialists a new wind in their sails, and the confidence that they would emerge victorious in June. 

As reported by EurActiv, their chances should be helped by the UK Conservatives leaving the EPP-ED group after the election (EurActiv 12/03/09). 

The odds, though, appear to be mounting against a Socialist victory. The Predict09 website, which accurately predicted the 2004 election results, gives the PES only a 2% chance of outnumbering the EPP (EurActiv 08/04/09). 

Similarly, Dr. Hermann Schmitt, a European elections expert at the University of Mannheim in Germany, told EurActiv that in all of the six "big" EU countries, he expects the PES to win fewer seats than its centre-right opponent, "perhaps even increasingly so compared to 2004". 

The PES leadership rejects such analyses for appearing too early. Poul Nyrup Rasmussen said his party would fight to the last minute, arguing: "We are the only European party to offer a clear and comprehensive plan to beat the recession."

No chance of a Socialist Commission president, says Schulz

Meanwhile, in response to months of speculation as to whether the PES will nominate an alternative candidate for the presidency of the next European Commission (EurActiv 03/12/08), German MEP Martin Schulz - leader of the Socialist Group in the European Parliament - told the FT Deutschland that even if the PES were to win the European elections, there would be no socialist or social democratic Commission president, as the majority of European leaders currently hail from the centre-right.

This appears to reinforce the widely-held belief in EU circles that incumbent President José Manuel Barroso will be reappointed for a second term at the EU executive's helm.

Greece's main socialist opposition party (PASOK) leader and Socialist International (SI) President George Papandreou stressed that socialists "have a historic task to respond to the challenges of the current (world economic) crisis". 

Addressing an open meeting organised by the Party of European Socialists (PES) and the French Socialist Party on Friday evening, he appeared confident that the European Parliament elections in June would bring a swing to the Left. 

"The peoples of Europe will turn the wheel to the Left," he stressed, adding that "Europe needs change now, change that societies need for a Europe that is socially just. A socialist Europe, politically, economically and socially." 

He added that progressive forces all over the world trust European Socialists, "because they believe that European Socialists can take initiatives so that the road for a new democratic organisation of our societies opens". 

Party of European Socialists President Poul Nyrup Rasmussen said: "Our ambition to be the majority group is realistic, we're very close to achieving it."

Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, campaign director for the French Socialist Party (PS), argued that Rasmussen was the PES's "best-placed candidate" to replace José Manuel Barroso as European Commission president.

PS leader Martine Aubry concluded that "if we have a parliamentary majority, we will find allies for a common candidate" for Commission president.

Meanwhile, Wolfgang Münchau, co-founder and director of Eurointelligence, argued that "the lack of ambition among European Socialists is breathtaking". 

According to  Münchau, Socialist group leader Martin Schulz has said that even if the Socialists were to win the European elections, "there would be no socialist or social democratic Commission president".

Schulz, who harbours hopes of becoming a European commissioner after the election, pointed out that the situation would have been different had the Lisbon Treaty been in force, but for the time being, the majority of heads of state and government are conservative.