Capitals tune in to Commission's musical chairs[fr][de] 

The appointment of the future Belgian commissioner appears to be part of a deal to form a new government in the country. Belgium finally managed to form a new administration on 2 January, following the collapse of Yves Leterme's government on 19 December over a scandal related to the rescue of Fortis bank. 

Like his predecessor, the new prime minister Herman Van Rompuy is from the Flemish Christian Democratic Party (CD&V), and Van Rompuy's government is similar to the previous one. The Belgian press reported that CD&V had obtained assurances that they would be able to appoint the successor to the current liberal (VLD) Foreign Minister Karel de Gucht should the latter become the country's next European commissioner. 

De Gucht, who was recently suspected of using his privileged position to profit from the sale of Fortis shares just before the bank's collapse, has since regained the confidence of his political allies. 

Ireland, which was given assurances by EU leaders that all the bloc's members would keep their commissioner to help pave the way for a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in the country (EurActiv 17/12/08), is also considering the identity of its next commissioner. Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has called for John Bruton, a former prime minister and currently the Commission's representative in the US, to be formally recommended as Ireland's next commissioner. 

Fine Gael is the second largest political party in Ireland and the largest opposition party in the Irish parliament. The Irish press widely considered the potential appointment of Bruton as commissioner to be a wise move, because Bruton is seen as an EU heavyweight and might be given an important portfolio. 

The Czech press quoted opposition leader Jiri Paroubek (CSSD) as saying that former CSSD chairman and current EU commissioner Vladimir Spidla would not continue in his role. Paroubek expressed his regret over Spidla's absence from the CSSD's list of candidates for June's European Parliament elections as well. 

Although the Czech leadership is now busy with the EU Presidency, word is spreading about the ambition of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Vondra for an international top job. Some see Vondra not only as a potential commissioner but also a potential replacement for Dutchman Jaap de Hoop Scheffer as NATO secretary general. De Hoop Scheffer's relatively low-key period in office ends in July. 

A number of commissioners are widely expected to leave the EU executive, including French Commissioner Jacques Barrot. Current French Agriculture Minister Michel Barnier is frequently cited as the Elysée's next choice for a Commission post. Should he assume the role, as a former commissioner for regional policy in Romano Prodi's commission, a former EU minister and a former head of the French diplomatic service, he is expected to be given an important portfolio. 

German Commissioner Guenther Verheugen and his Dutch colleague Neelie Kroes are also expected to leave. But others are expected to stay, including Olli Rehn, responsible for EU enlargement, who recently made no secret of this ambition in an interview (EurActiv 21/11/08). Recently, a Finnish MEP suggested that Rehn could become the first 'High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy' once the Lisbon Treaty is enforced (EurActiv 17/12/08). 

UK Commissioner Catherine Ashton only took office recently, replacing Peter Mandelson without giving clear indications as to whether she would stay in the next commission. Quoting government sources, the British press is already mentioning Geoff Hoon, the current transport secretary, as a candidate for Britain's next commissioner. Ashton, however, is also believed to be "very keen" to have her temporary appointment made permanent. 

Among the new members, Bulgarian Commissioner Meglena Kuneva is expected to stay for a second term, while her Romanian colleague Leonard Orban is expected to be replaced. According to rumours, Slovenia's Janez Potocnik, Hungary's Laszlo Kovacs and Latvia's Andris Piebalgs are also expected to leave the commission. 

While Commission President José Manuel Barroso is expected to retain his job should the EPP-ED group prove successful in the European elections, his main challenge will be to redistribute portfolios. As a rule, commissioners who wish to stay for a second term seek more important dossiers.