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21 November 2009
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Consensus growing for low-profile EU 'chairman'[fr][de

Published: Monday 2 November 2009   

Confirming that EU leaders appear to read the job description of the first-ever permanent Council president as more of a 'chairman' than a 'leader', agencies reported today (2 November) that the mild-mannered Belgian prime minister, Herman Van Rompuy, is the "most consensual" figure for the top job.

Background:

Belgium's political institutions are complex, with most of the political power organised around the need to represent the main cultural communities. Consecutive revisions of the constitution (in 1970, 1980, 1988 and 1993) established a unique federal state with political power segregated into three levels – the federal government, the three language communities (Flemish, French and German) and the three regions (Flanders, Wallonia and the Brussels-Capital Region). 

In 2007-2008, community tensions brought about a political crisis of such magnitude that many observers speculated about a possible partition of Belgium. To defuse the crisis, a renewed effort to reform the constitution and re-balance power is currently underway. In 2008, another crisis related to Fortis bank accelerated the fall of Yves Leterme's government. 

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"There is a consensus on his name [Van Rompuy], which is rare among 27 [EU heads of state and government]. Nobody else has unanimity," said an EU diplomat, quoted by AFP. 

"Nobody opposes him and many are asking him to accept," said another. 

Van Rompuy, who became Belgium's prime minister last year and who turned 62 yesterday, found himself the object of very clear requests to take the post of first permanent Council president at the EU summit on 29-30 October, the sources reportedly added. AFP hinted that Van Rompuy has the strong support of France and Germany. 

A Belgian government spokesperson refused to comment, but today's edition of Dutch-language Belgian daily De Standaard carries the headline 'Van Rompuy is not a candidate, but he is the favourite for president of Europe'. 

Van Rompuy has long been on EurActiv's list of possible candidates for the top job (see EurActiv LinksDossier on 'Choosing 'Mr(s). Europe'). Among his strong points is his reputation as a skilled mediator and troubleshooter, gained from the difficult Belgian inter-community political context, EurActiv's sources indicated. 

However, the same analysis also reveals his perceived weak points, namely that he is far from being a charismatic communicator and lacks international prominence. 

Van Rompuy is renowned for his modesty. He recently holidayed in Australia, where he and his wife enjoyed a camper van trip unaccompanied by any staff or security personnel. 

The Belgian PM has enjoyed a long political career in the EPP-affiliated CD&V, a Flemish party. His brother Eric Van Rompuy is also a CD&V politician. Their sister Christine Van Rompuy is a member of the small Workers' Party of Belgium (a dissident faction of the former Belgian communist party). 

However, the political situation in Belgium may yet hinder Van Rompuy from taking the EU job. Under his leadership, discrete negotiations are still ongoing to reform the constitution and re-balance power between linguistic communities. 

Rompuy's predecessor, Yves Leterme, also of CD&V, failed to reach a compromise over requests from Flanders to transfer more power to the regions (EurActiv 15/07/09). The Belgians generally recognise that Van Rompuy has been much more successful than his predecessor in dealing with the difficult negotiations. 

Recently, Van Rompuy said he would strive to solve the country's internal tensions by mid-2010, in order to avoid potential problems during the country's EU presidency in the second half of next year (EurActiv 27/07/09). 

Scepticism grows over other candidates 

Francophone Belgian daily La Derničre Heure writes that Luxembourg PM Jean-Claude Juncker, seen as a strong candidate for the top job, has fallen from grace due to his poor handling of the financial crisis. 

Last September, Juncker apparently underestimated the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on Europe (EurActiv 18/09/09). On that occasion, Juncker, who is also chairman of the Eurogroup, said that fiscal stimulus packages and rescue operations similar to those in operation on the other side of the Atlantic were "not a solution for Europe". 

As for Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, La Derničre Heure recalls that the negative result of the referendum in The Netherlands over the European Constitution, held on 29 May 2005 under his watch, represents a clear handicap. There is no unanimity among EU leaders for either Juncker or Balkenende, AFP writes. 

According to the Lisbon Treaty, the EU top jobs can be attributed by qualified majority vote. However, politically, EU leaders generally wish to take such important decisions by consensus.

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Next steps:

  • 3 Nov.: Czech constitutional court rules over the last challenge by a group of senators on the conformity of the Lisbon Treaty with the country's constitution.
  • 13-14 Nov.: Possible meeting of EU leaders in Brussels for extraordinary summit to decide on top jobs.
  • 1 Jan. 2010: Likely entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty.

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