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According to recent polls, 25% of registered voters have already decided to support the referendum and 20% will vote against. In the meantime, the uncertainty among voters remains high, fuelling the intensity of the ongoing political debate. This report by Morgan Larhant for the EPIN aims first to describe the main actors in the debate and, secondly, to contextualize the most debated issues by outlining some explanatory factors.
Following the opinion of the vast majority of parties, President Chirac announced on July 14th 2004 the organisation of a referendum on the European constitution. On this occasion he declared that no political leader could seriously oppose this text. Despite this judgement, and very often because of it, the opposition to the constitutional Treaty has grown in the last semester to reach a peak on December 1st 2004, the date of the PS’s internal referendum.
Almost all the parties supported the choice to submit the European constitution to a referendum. This relative consensus was even strengthened in May 2004 when Tony Blair decided to organise a referendum in the UK. As a result, the decision of J. Chirac was expected. When it occurred in July 2004, it paved the way for the intervention of both institutional and individual actors.
Three institutional actors have had, or will have, an influence on the debate:
All actors outside of the Government structure fall into the second category: individual actors. Consequently, it encompasses the parties, the trade unions and civil society. The Media are not mentioned since the leading dailies (Libération, Le Monde, Le Figaro) have not clearly taken sides on the subject. However, they generally give the impression that they are supporting the constitution.