Irish set referendum date as 'yes' campaign gathers steam[de] 

The MEP, who preferred to remain anonymous until the official government announcement is made, indicated that a number of converging factors bode well for a 'yes' result. 

The latest opinion polls in Ireland currently show that a significant swing towards the 'yes' camp has taken place, with approximately two voters in favour of the treaty for every one against. 

According to the MEP, the decline of Libertas is likely to be a major boon to pro-treaty forces. The anti-Lisbon movement's controversial pan-European campaign resulted in a disastrous showing in the European elections, including the defeat of party founder and figurehead Declan Ganley (EurActiv 08/06/09). 

Earlier this year, Ganley said that he would not campaign against Lisbon for a second time if he failed to win a seat. While Libertas, minus Ganley as their high-profile mouthpiece, may still run a 'no' campaign, the impact of their message is likely to be weakened this time around. Furthermore, the guarantees provided by EU leaders to Ireland last week (EurActiv 19/06/09) are likely to strengthen the 'yes' camp. 

Secondly, the 'yes' campaign by both the Irish government and other pro-Lisbon parties is likely to be more coherent and forceful second time around. According to the Irish Sunday Business Post, in the first referendum, "the combined forces of the 'no' side, including the campaign by Libertas founder Declan Ganley and pro-life group Coir, proved too much to handle for a 'yes' side that was essentially divided". 

However, the belief at government level is "that this time around, partisan politics must be set aside in the interests of a cohesive campaign under a 'yes' banner". 

Moreover, a significant upsurge of vocal support from prominent civil society figures has strengthened the 'yes' camp's hand. High-profile businessmen, political commentators and sports stars have come out in support of the treaty in recent weeks. 

In many respects, the situation thus far mirrors that of the referendum on the Nice Treaty, which the Irish rejected by 54% to 46% in 2001 before a strengthened 'yes' campaign a year later led to a 63%-37% majority.